223. Market Update

Oops -- I edited this to put the DJIA in the right ball park. I repeated 11xxx DJIA throughout when it should have been 10xxx. Must have been wishful thinking,

Sorry for the long leave of absence. Lost my red squeaky forecasting toy for a while. We did bounce as predicted, but several new events occurred since the last report that caused some uncertainty, such as, Greece debt, Euro stability across entire Euro Zone, China increasing Bank reserve requirements, China paying games with the yuan, the U.S. still sitting on its hands re Iran, and as usual Obama preaching to his choir. So, what were the net effects? As I stated in a previous post, I think China has taken the right approach to preventing a run away economy and to curb investment speculation. I continue to see positive growth there and at a rate above ours here. They may still dabble with the value of the yuan which may cause O's feathers to ruffle. Hopefully this will pass and not cause O to shout the word protectionism too loudly! If he persists on leaning that way, the market could fold quickly. However, with the earnings looking so positive, economy growing (Fed forecasts even stronger than expected growth for 2010 now), jobless rate holding steady (won't decrease much), Europe with a plan to handle debt crisis with some of its countries, UK rebounding, I'm looking for a positive 25-30 days. Not to say we won't dip; volatility needs to settle down in the next 5 days. I'm looking at a convergence point of DJIA 10,200 for 10-day and 30-day moving averages to be the breaking point of the market UPWARD. In short, we'll play the bouncing game for the next 4-5 sessions and break through around 10,200 when the 10-day and 30-day moving averages converge upward for another 400-500 points, maybe to 10,600-10,700. But, what do I know? I can't even keep my toy dry for longer than a few seconds -- I carry it everywhere. I think my bratty brother Douglas Ray -- a cat no less -- stole it last time. Ha! Like he knows what to do with it! Ok -- ante up, but keep an eye on the wild card protectionism. Although you may hear gossip re Health Care continuance or begin to realize that O's State of the Union promises re nuclear and offshore drilling are NOT near term, the real positive news will be the ongoing progress towards the conservative views. The USS Democrat has taken a few blows and is already under damage control. See you in about 25 days -- squirrels may already be out by that time (warning for the Squirrel Man).