1024. We are beginning the LATE cycle of the Business Cycle -- Beware Stock owners

 Fidelity's Viewpoint Article is the 2021 version of a more complete 2017 article describing how to invest during the 4 different cycles of the Business Cycle. I maintains it's conclusions despite being a briefer version. 

Back in March 2017 when I read the previous version, I had penciled in dates of the cycles:

Mid-Early = 4/2017

Mid-Mid = 4/2018

Mid-Late = 10/2022

Beginning of Recession Cycle = 4/2024

So, what does this mean? Let me note some of the key points for the cycle I believe we are in. All this is in the current article referenced above.

Where the MID Cycle was remembered for growth peaking, strong credit growth, good profits that peaked peaked, a neutral policy, and inventories and sales growth reaching equilibrium, we find ourselves already about 8 months into the LATE Cycle that usually lasts 1.5 years. Here is what we can expect shortly: Growth moderating, Credit tightening, Earnings under pressure, Policy Contractionary, Inventories grow, Sales growth falls.

Previous recent posts note the mitigation attempts by Humpy Dumpy Joe -- mainly government spending and hand outs (94 year old mother-in-law will probably be dead before she ever receives her third stimulus check) -- aimed at presenting a rosy picture for a grim disease. It won't last long before even the average citizen to finally wake up. Until then, probably 75% will be clueless in the smoke stirred up from all the dog and pony shows.

Anyway, which sectors are in favor and which to avoid during the LATE CYLE and then the inevitable Recession Cycle? A chart I reproduced here from the 2017 version and from some of notes from some of Jim Cramer's articles and books follows with some differences:

Sector                                      Early     Mid     Late     Recession

Financials                                   +

Consumer Discretionary            ++                                    --

Info Technology                         ++         +        --              --

Industrials                                   ++         +                        --

Materials                                                  --        ++            -

Consumer Staples                         -                      +            ++

Health Care                                   -                     ++           ++

Energy                                          --                     ++

Telecom                                        --                                    ++

Utilities                                         --         -            +           ++    

Jim Cramer suggests that in this Late Cycle when the Fed begins tightening (it's tapering is first) at an expected 3% GDP, we should be buying food and medical stocks (seculars, e.g., PFE, ABBV, BUD, etc.). As economy shrinks to 2% GDP, we should begin selling cyclicals, e.g., CAT, IR. Still at 2% GDP we should be buying Large Techs such as AAPL, GOOG, etc.. As we continue to fall in strength, Sell Metals and minerals. Now get ready to jump into Financials when GDP approaches 1% and the Fed talks easing (that's printing money baby) and teasing consumers to buy. Retailers should benefit in rush of buying. Easing will take a few months of convincing to turn around housing and auto market and to get us back on an upward trend into another Business cycle Early Cycle and out of the Recession Cycle (not necessarily a Recession).

If you are like me, the recession choices of Energy and Utilities never happens -- they are always a loser in the long portfolio. 

Now, the caveat: Long Secular Cycles (10-30 years) will affect the smaller business cycles (1-10) years). If you are a long-investor thinker, would you ever dump your Technology and Health Care stocks just to play the Business Cycle? No. I read the above chart as a slowdown (-, --) or increase (+, ++) of portfolio choices during the cycle. But with outside factors like Covid and Humpty Dumpty Joe's plans for taxes a distortion of the above chart and Cramer's guidelines become just Rules of Thumb (ROT). Oops, sorry WOKE people, ROT is on the do not use list!

Bottom Line conclusion: I'd pay attention to the AVOID list generated by my analysis of LATE Cycle Business Cycle caught in the global, very negative, economy outlook. What will I do? Probably forget about the LATE and RECESSION choices this Business Cycle and SELL everything in my non-taxable accounts to avoid the 10-20% market crash coming shortly! Then I'll buy back in with some consideration of the chart and Cramer's tips into whichever cycle is driving the business cycle. 

So, if you remember Sam and her crystal ball which always guided you and me, she just sent a signal down to me to dump when techs next jump up. That's got to be very soon!

1020. Covid Studies

 So, what do we REALLY know about COVID (or variants) reinfections:

1. Do we have the number of reinfections of people who were unvaccinated AND already had COVID? Not that I can see. AN easy measure of those in hospital a second time. Hey patient, did you already have COVID before and are not vaccinated? Yes or No. Poof...a statistics that can be reported to CDC and can be accumulated across the country/world and reported to us. But, n-o-o-o. Instead they report things as they did here. This was MEDIA misinformation again. Now read this. A different story and in short they have no clue and need to continue to study: 

"

• How likely is reinfection
• How often reinfection occurs
• How soon after the first infection can reinfection take place
• How severe are cases of reinfection
• Who might be at higher risk for reinfection
• What reinfection means for a person’s immunity
• If a person is able to spread COVID-19 to other people when reinfected    "

This response still doesn't in general states how often reinfection occurs, but doesn't state the action required, such as, the one I mentioned to get it real numbers on the reinfections from the hospitals/doctors/clinics via a reporting tool.

Thus, the 2x more likely is for those who remain unvaccinated after already having been infected is made up. My wife also read somewhere that expect only 3 months of immunity from natural protection once infected and recovered. But then, as she explained, there are cases where people were infected and it appeared they recovered, i.e., full protection not obtained, only to have a reoccurrence of the virus later. In other words, are the reinfections being examined reinfections or reoccurrences of less protection not fully recovered patients.

2. One question I have is are there adverse effects from over-vaccinating? Please, someone tell me that too so I can make my on mind re getting a booster shot. I already received by 2 jabs of Moderna and recommend that others follow IF their doctor recommends. I would expect that recommendation for anybody with immunity problems or conditions already made available. 

As far as the booster? The doctor may have suggestions, but I'd question him on the facts available from 1. and 2. You'll have to make up your own mind. Also, there have been no conclusive studies re missing the 2 different types of vaccines. So, I would think you should to reduce any risk. So much more is needed. And then, which choice to make will still be difficult. In the distance past I would only ask DO I want Polio or NOT! COVID you might recover from, Polio you didn't.  

809. Sam says JUMP (the Market)

Sam isn't Simon, but when she says jump you might consider it. It's time for another pop up in the DJIA. Although the world is transitioning from mid- to late-business cycle phase where money tightens again, the US is on the border (no pun intended) and profits still seem positive. Cycle dynamics at this point of the cycle where Fed rates are still in neutral territory until next hike suggest time to buy chemicals & paper stocks (so claims Cramer in his book). and begin to shave medical and food stocks. These are long-term suggestions and it may just be these that pop toward their ending cycle highs if you play with the gamblers short-term. Transgressing through the business cycle has been a slow, slow process this time. We've seen the "ease" beginning in the Obama period when the Fed couldn't stop printing dollars. Now Trumps easing via tax cuts extended that period a few years. Get ready for the banks to make their last move up also. By "move" I am talking months to a year in the slowing moving cycle moves. However, if you are like me, you ride the diversified "mutual fund" you created and be an Alfred E. Newman ("What, me worry?", NO). So, there you go. Be a short-termer and get excited like popcorn kernals in a hot popping pot, or a long-termer and stay chilled realizing that that those currently lagging stocks from the past decade will now keep you afloat. In short (again a pun), Sam expects techs to remain strong and financials to feed the fire (actually everything looks promising real short-term); but, come fall (another pun?), be ready for the consequences when the cycle starts giving you a preview of what it has in mind when  "put-your're-one-foot-in" becomes a reality and the cycle gongs go off. Sam doesn't expect chaos -- except the gambler-marketeers will make it so over-selling the market by leaps and bounds. Play it, or absorb it. You're choice. My goals remain "what will I leave behind at 99" -- that's a catchy phrase. And morbid.  Yet, being a senior is making me lean (yet another put) towards more investing GRADUALLY and SLOWLY in more fixed income choices -- why give up the much higher returns long-term of other stocks now unless you need spare "gold" to set aside for the last rainy days of your "golden" years (right!).

"Don't worry be Happy" Bob Marley would sing -- now that's better.

686. Are you enjoying Obamacare (ACA)?

Fortunately, so far, other than annoyances re new programs (not costs) I haven't seen a personal difference. As a matter of fact, Medicare and my supplemental plan have been a blessing lately. What surprised me was how much lower medical procedures are reimbursed (no effect to you) compared to medical procedure fees. Oh, I feel for the people who have to pay full fees -- those who choose NOT to pay for health insurance or buy insurance that's inadequate for them personally. I have a friend on Medicare who without a doubt would be sucking up much Medicare and insurance bucks per year. But, instead of opting for a supplemental plan that costs more and pays all differences in what Medicare doesn't pay, a plan that is almost free was chosen. Free did I say? Yes they exist as far as monthly premiums. It's the co-pays that add up. In my friend's case, the costs already this year (here were just finished January) have already exceeded annual premium payment for the policy I recommended! Doesn't take many hospital days and specialist to realize that the almost free plan has wiped you out in January!

Here's one for you: I received a letter from an ACO (look it up yourself), a new Obamacare (ACA) money-spending entity that was designed and implemented to defend against the inefficiencies in the use and payment systems throughout the health industry. The hospitals, doctors, and healthcare organization who have signed up with an ACO share the efficiency gained by their work. If they share it (bonuses), who saves? Anyway, they send out this very general, high-level letter allowing you to opt-out of allowing Medicare to send them "personalized" information about you. My spouse and I discussed this. The ACO is NOT there to benefit you, such as making available information such as treatment dates, times, your drugs, etc. Hence, if you land up in a hospital and cannot communicate, they will NOT be able to look up you prior treatments, allergies, etc. This is NOT the function of the ACO. Would have been nice if data could be shared immediately when necessary and when the patient cannot respond himself. The ACO is merely playing monitor, like a resource monitor on you computer, looking at everybody'e costs and regarding those who do the best -- oops, let me paraphrase in what I believe: FOLLOW THE PROGRAM. I can see large abuse of the program to get a bonus -- false info, delays, etc. So, we just added another program that is going to MEASURE something, but does not have pure factual and unabused data. Sound like out other government programs?

In short, the ACO will get Medicare data regardless of whether you opt out or not. All the data they get otherwise is sufficient for their "inaccurate" analysis and subsequent CONTROL. I do NOT see that identifying my data personally is required. Thus, I immediately sent back my Opt-Out.

671. Another mistake in Obamacare Law

This article points out a mistake in wording that could be challenged yet by more states and organizations to prevent the Federal government from doling out subsidy money for those who can't afford health care. In short, the law does not specifically state that the Federal Government can subsidize people who obtain insurance from FEDERAL EXCHANGES. I doubt if this is going to hold up the Feds from shoving this down our throats. Still, the law does specifically state that subsidies could be granted if insurance is obtained from a STATE exchange. It also questions the penalty to employers who decide not to offer insurance and it's employees must go to a Federal Exchange -- NO penalty. What a poorly written law. in addition to poor policies. Repeal the BAD parts NOW!

648. Thank You Mr. Perry

Rick Perry vows not to implement the setting up of health exchanges and expansion of Medicare stated in Obamacare. there are better ways to actually IMPROVE health care AND improve health care costs that Obamacare! Perry knows it, as do many other state governors still fighting the controversial parts of Obamacare. Insurance across state lines would raise the health pools (and risk pools) and make insurance companies more competitive. Obamacare does NOT provide competitiveness and will cost more. For those not on Medicare, take some time to understand that Medicare + supplemental insurance needed to make your coverage equal or a little better than before your ancient days, is NOT significantly less than you are paying today -- unless you get your insurance through work. We old seniors have the large monthly expenditure in our fixed income budgets to deal with until we part to better pastures. Some, like me, have pensions that DON'T increase ever per year, while health costs and insurance do! We need REAL help to lower health and health insurance costs (I'm only asking to lower the annual increases). Maybe the states can work out regional deals and get this accomplished since our federal government has given up! Go Perry and other governors fighting for US and NOT the party.

647. Ban What?

Take your pick: Join NYC in banning soda or Berlin in banning circumcisions. These are right on up there with mandatory health insurance ruled constitutional by the Supreme Court. As you can see, governments can get away with anything and the latest ruling by the Supreme Court just opened the door for exactly that -- ANYTHING! If it looks like a tax, costs you like a tax, and is collected like a tax, then it's a tax. I find NYC's ban real troublesome, but, who am I but one of the majority who agree the ban is ridiculous and costing his state a lot more than it will ever benefit from it. Banning >16 ounce drinks has NO affect other than hiring people in the local government to manage it. A little creativity by the establishments can get around it easily enough: sell smaller size with unlimited refills! Duh! Bloomberg is a nut case on this one! And Berlin! Wow, I wouldn't want to have to wait until I am old enough to consent and then remember going under the knife for a circumcision. Just snip it and let me grow up without the event's recollection. Das ist nicht richtig!

642. So, the Supreme Court plays its partisan games too.

Once again the Supreme Court voted there liberalism or conservatism, just like the political parties. This government's leaders are numb to the wishes of the people and Constitution. OBamacare can now continue to proceed after today's ruling that the controversial mandate is OK. However, it was stipulated that it IS A TAX! So you not so poor people who have just too much to get Medicaid, will be TAXED. No one expects them to get insurance sine a 1% of income fine is far less than health insurance for the year. Even starting 2015, a 2.5% fine is a joke and won't change the habits. Thus, we will continue to pay their medical expenses! How will they even enforce this? I'm sure they haven't a clue, but will hire hundreds of people, at our expense, to stir the mud. OBamacare needs to stop implementing things or we'll be another Greece. According to this article, America has become even more fiscally reckless since the last U.S. downgrade and we should expect another. I want to thank all the people who voted for Obama for destroying America!

410. Response to Comment on Post #408

I just keep trying to remember how it was when I was your age. Was I as vigilant as I am today, or did the media cover the right stuff correctly? I can't be sure. But, we'd be talking around 1981 : 2nd year in Amarillo the first time, Sesame Street, Electric Co, Land of the Lost, etc. I can not remember ever watching a CNN or FOX News, even a news report on major network. Did get a paper, but even today Amarillo paper is nothing more than cat litter box floor. Internet? NONE -- Al Gore didn't 'invent" it yet. . So, I am leaning towards NEVER even informed of events of importance. Thus, your are on you own as to what to do with this info and react I guess, as am I. However, my future has a closer termination point and anything happening today may never mature to be really, really catastrophic. How would I deal with all this if I were you? Can't get my mind in your shoes -- can't seriously imagine that I will live 30 years longer than now and drum up scenarios. Guess we all learn to adapt. What really bothers me about politics is thqt ONLY the SUPER rich can afford to play it at the upper levels. We HAVE to elect a SUPER rich person who probably has an ego to carry -- an ego with not DESIRE but WANTING to take control of the world. SCARY! We can only hope we get a Ronald Reagan who I feel believed he was actually out to help we peons even tho9ugh he was SUPER rich. A YOUNG schmuck like OBlunder can't possibly have the real WISDOM of an older Reagan and LEAD the world. I hate to stereotype, but Wisdom of the world AND life (relationships, real feelings about people and events, hands-on experience with actions and results, wins AND losses, etc.) do not come with a person OBlunder's age. All he's qualified to do is HIRE more unqualified, incompetent people who think like him. 

But, how about the media? I wonder what percent of the news media (overall must have increased 1000% since 1980) are my "sterotyped" age range? Do you watch whaqt I did when I did? A Walter Cronkite type: mature, seasoned, calm, focused on facts and not opinions? Hardly. Now every reporter chases only his on tail -- remember the quote I posted a few weeks back by Stephen King:    "Each thing I do I rush through so I can do something else".  Seems to be the reporter's motto, instead of my Boy Scout religion -- Trustworthy, Loyal, Helpful, Friendly, Courteous, King, Cheerful, Thrifty, Obedient, Clean, Reverent. You live by the Boy Scout religion and you won't be asking Christian vs. Muslin, right vs. wrong, love vs. hate, etc. -- you be living the best life you can.

So, I need a conclusion. A answer to your comment. I can only suggest SPEAK OUT to others, but not just the rant or complaint, but some background re life as it is now and why it is going down hill fast. We all need to pull back to the 80's in the people relationship category -- certainly not technology. Maybe in another 30 years, people will have learned HOW to deal with these, probably technology-driven accelerated, deficiencies causing such a rift in our lives. But for now. I see no short-term fix to the blabber, to the lies, to the sensualism of reports, to the BAD rich always attempting to take over the power of We the People. Screen your next president carefully. Oh, speaking of which, DO realize that ALL SUPER Rich are probably in the 15% tax bracket BECAUSE the clowns wrote tax code for the MIDDLE class; specifically, they didn't want them to have to pay greater than 15% on their INVESTMENTS (capped rate at 15%). Almost ALL Super rich live off their long-term investments ONLY. Thus, they will pay no more than 15%. ONLY the rich still working will see a small percentage of their total income (salary) be taxed higher. Also note that their WORK INCOME = salary + OPTIONS, where options are taxed differently too. But, do I THINK the RICH should be taxed any more on their INVESTMENTS than everybody else. NO. They earned the money they invested initially and already {AND taxes on it. The only correct answer is the FLAT TAX as discussed in a book I posted -- See Book category and go read it to see how we all can be EQUALLY taxed that will benefit our government's appetite even more AND please We the People too.

Sorry for the rant. Your comment ignited another flame.

394. America Runs For the Thistle Award

Only Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan and Portugal have debts larger than their economies in the major economies of the world. But, look out, the U.S. is now running for the dishonorable thistle award. We have joined the "elite" countries that are bringing down Europe and Japan that has had a stagnated economy for over a decade! According to this USA Today article, we've made it to Debt=Economy level. $15.3T doesn't sound bad when you compare it to the estimated $26T expected within the this decade; whoa, what are you saying? Right! It sucks. Read the article that explains that the debt reductions already passed will cut that $26T to $24T. What progress! Now do you think we need a BUSINESS-Oriented fellow in the White House. One that had EXPERIENCE in reducing costs and growing a company (nation)? Another wake up call for those still dreaming that things will get better on their own WITHOUT a leader. We can't afford new stuff, let alone the old stuff, like Obamacare already consuming too much too early.

392. Without Health Insurance? Maybe the world will end?

I couldn't pass up leading you to two comics in todays papers and online at ArcaMax. For those who continue to refuse to get health insurance and cost us instead, I submit that it won't matter soon because the world is going to end anyway!

• Haggar the Horrible - Future crack down on people without insurance
• Wizard of Id - Will the world end 12/21/12?

Ouch....we DO need to lower Medical costs. But, people who don't have insurance because the costs might crimp their exuberance lifestyle or are illegal need to quit eating out of my wallet. You know: it's not about the hand your hold, but how you play it (heard that somewhere). Don't go stealing the cards and ruining the game for all of us. [Are we a little insensitive today? ... well, maybe. Sorry.]

386. Wellesse - My Cure for Aching Bones

Have you ever tried Glucosamine+Chondroitin+MSM? When Sam (my late Lab) was still around and up in age, she had difficulties getting up and down and limped occasionally. Glucosamine stopped all her problems. So, about 10 years ago I tried some, but after about 4 weeks I noticed no results. However, I was NOT taking the liquid, nor potent mixture of 2000mg Glucosamine, 1200mg Chondroitin, and 500mg MSM in the Wellesse Joint Movement Glucosamine product. Pills did NOT work for me. But when I started to use the Wellesse product about 4 years ago, the deep pains in my shoulder that I had for over two years were knocked down from intolerable, keep-me-up-all-night pains to tolerable only-hurt-a-little-after-heavy-exercise pain that were gone after resting. It took only about 2 weeks to see results, but about 2-3 months to get to the state that sleeping was again an all night thing.

After taking it for about 6 months, I cut the dosages in half and finally got to 0-pain. But, then my pool shut down in September 2011! After only 1.5 months off my daily routine of 2 miles per day swimming, the pains came back.Not as bad as originally, but enough to wake me again and force me to shift my arm into a more comfortable position. Thus, I went back on the Wellesse product. This time it took about 1-1.5 months before seeing noticeable change. My pain was like there was a sharp metal pin deep inside my shoulder joint that radiated pain in all directions. Now, I am almost completely back to "good" normal (after about 2.5 months). I'll probably cut the dosages in half again, but this time I will stick to some daily dosage, maybe even 1/4.

You can find this product at you local Walmart. Do NOT expect it to resolve physically damaged joint parts (I can only assume this). Although, the Internet searches claim reconstruction properties for products containing this dosage level. I can attest that my swimming did get stronger and faster. Thus, this claim might be true as well. I had to yield my title in the National Triathlon Challenge(Swimming) because the pool was closed, but will return next year to claim it again. Not bad for a senior.

I hope this was helpful to someone. Let me know if you try this product and find similar results.

358. YES, there is a GOOD Grinch

Hod on Senators! The HOUSE is NOT going home before the job is done. Thank You! House leaders rejected the bill passed by the Senate to run home and essentially delay the key items of the payroll tax cut bill. My blog #353 reported what the Senate (Democrat majority) offered up. Let's see if the House representatives are a little more responsible and can get the Keystone pipeline STARTED NOW! I'd love to see the payroll tax cut extension get axed completely! However, if this is the only way to get the pipeline started (more jobs, less reliance on OPEC oil) and the doctors paid what they need to be to service seniors, then so be it. The good Grinch needs to haunt Congress' Christmas so We the People get our Christmas present of growing jobs; screwing the seniors by cutting doctor fees will only make the waiting lines longer and the number of doctors taking Medicare fewer! It is bad enough the payroll tax cut will rob them AND FUTURE GENERATIONS of dearly needed additional funds for the Trust Fund! Please. Get it right -- then go home. DO YOUR JOB.

331. The World is a Mess -- Let's Party

The world's economy is a mess, it's politics is a mess, it's love for each other is a mess. America has its own problems too, such as, budget, Medicare & SS, Medicare doctor fees, Immigration policy, Foreign policy (lack of), trade deficit. The majority of America's problems have been going on for years and decades. Congress continues to spin wheels. The President continues to hide in a closet and wish others would lead. But, what does that matter? Let's take a 17-day vacation to Hawaii! Yet again, the President of the United States ignores a bucket of overflowing toxic waste in his own house. How many hundred of thousands of dollars will it COST US at Christmas time to send him and his security people on huge not-so-green planes all the way to Hawaii? The trip is one thing; the loss of another 17 days up-righting a sinking boat is much more important. Happy HOlidays Pres! YOu bring this wOrld sO-O-O-O much jOy! Keep Oblundering alOng. UnfOtunately, yOu will still have yOur jOb when yOu get back!

324. Market Rebound

Keep an eye on 12200 resistance. We may stop there yet again until Congress agrees on next "financial/job" issues: Extension of jobless benefits by increasing weeks already at 99 (against -- time to take ANY job), punish the wealthy who had greater than a $1M income by removing unemployment benefits (okay), punish the upper 1% of wealthy with 3.5% surtax (okay, we need the help, but let's make it personal income, not small businesses), increase medicare premiums for wealthy (okay, all seniors need their help), how about freezing of government payrolls (YES, need to get them in line with private salaries; cutting PENSIONS would be nice too!), reduce goverment jobs by 200,000 (okay, funnel off to private sector). Even more important is to kill the 27% cut to doctors for medicare services -- we do not need to spend Congress resources on a health issues to burden their economic decisions. Frank-Dodd repeal would be a blessing! With only about 20% implemented, we've already spent over $250M from OUR pockets for NO benefits. I just want to repeat again: BYE BARNEY FRANK, you loser! For some insight on latest economic battles in House, see this article.

With another Congressional vacation after mid-month, I wouldn't expect anything to happen until the end-of-the-year show. So, look for 12200 resistance once again. Maybe we'll shoot through it in December to next resistance of 12700. We need a strong finish to stave off the rating companies.

297 Medigap

Oh how much fun I have been having learning about the so-simplified Medicare plans before I HAVE to go onto Medicare all-to-soon. Yes, the plans are now standardized. INTO Plans A-N. Hmmm...that's like FOURTEEN possibilities. Well, you are spared looking at 14, because your state or provider may limit the number of plans available to you in your state. Medicare.gov is a good place to start and you can get a listing of the plans and providers in your state. So, I did that. But the number of providers were too many for me to possibly review, PLUS you can't find 80-90% of the companies on the Internet or if they are there, any more detailed information about there company than on the Medicare.gov site. Another place to look is your state insurance regulatory site. To me it seemed that every financial company and every new venture looked at the standardization and assumed they could compete in the market. Some didn't even bother brushing off the dust collected in the closet before "highlighting" their success in the market -- yeah right. So how can you compare companies? Well, you CAN'T without getting an independent agent involved. Then, you need to assure you have one licensed in your state and dependable. Now your list of possibilities have escalated exponentially.

I located an independent as many other had. Google Medicare Supplement plans in your state and pick one of the specially highlighed ads from the resulting sites list. I was directed to ArborIF.com and Jonathan Brackin. I have never felt better about an independent agent (used one for pre-Medicare plans) than he. First let me qualify my knowledge in Medicare and plans -- close to expert before contacting him. The only thing I was seeking from him was a comparison of providers and some differences in plans. Here are some specifics of my experiences:

1. Advantage or Supplement plan? I had already ruled out Medicare Advantage plans in lieu of Medicare Supplement Plan. You'll have to make that decision first. Don't be enamored by the 0% premium of Advantage plans compared to $91-168 Supplement plans. You should know by now you get nothing for nothing. Co-pays and deductibles in Advantage plans add up. The bottom line in comparisons are Out-of-Pocket and Peace -of-mind. You can probably come up with some typical number of services you will need in a year, but you can never plan on the unexpected accident or major illness. PLAN for it -- it will "seem" more costly (premiums, that is), but the peace-of-mind and actual costs are what is important. For example, I am in excellent health and haven't even been to a doctor in over 6 years -- no expenses. Now I MUST join Medicare and see Part B be taken away from my operating income. Ignore that cost in comparisons -- you pay that regardless of Advantage or Supplement. So, when you see that your out-of-pocket could be as much as $3400 on a $0 premium Advantage Plan, is that better than a $0 out-of-pocket in addition to a premium of $150/month ($1800 per year). NOT in my book. If you want play the game of excellent health now and no chance of any major illnesses AND not go to the doctor when you, like it or not, are MORE MATURE (old will suffice in my mind), go for the Advantage plan. I'm going with a $91.91 first year monthly premium for a Supplement.

2. Let's talk Supplements: The state list is ridiculous, as are the number of different plans, A-N. Do you realize your rate increases are dependent on the provider's risk pool for a SPECIFIC plan? Jump into on that has higher-risk people and you'll see higher rate increases. Also beware, some of the plans now entice consumers with lower premiums + copays, once again competing at the Advantage plan level -- already discussed that briefly (want more info, enter a comment and I'll answer). So, if you use logical commonsense, you'll find a lot of people NEVER look at anything other than price -- almost like those who vote for a president base on his looks or grammar. My bet is these people are also the ones who have no clue on what the spend on health care and thus are the riskiest pool to be with. Just my theory -- but, I immediately ignored the L, N and similar low premium plans. Once again, I didn't want to have to micromanage my health counting co-pays and worrying about limits. So, I focused on the G and F plans. The difference? G=F except you pay the Part B deductible (around $162) yourself instead of the plan paying it. Surprisingly, the annual cost for the F plan is MORE than the G Plan plus the deductible. In other words, F is pushed and sucks in the not-so-clever consumers who can't do math. Well, I didn't want to be in that risk pool either. I secured a G Plan. In addition to these, there are also F and G SELECT plans, but SELECT plans limit you to a specific hospital(s) in a Network. For $6/month less I opted out on that. I had a hospital in that Network, but the other hospital here is the one that is known for its cardiology work and programs.

3. Now that a plan is decided on, which provider? If you haven't already heard of the company, avoid it now is my recommendation. It so happens that the company I chose is well known AND had the lowest rates offered. Let me qualify that. The agent selected did NOT have a complete list of all providers available in the state. None do! Some providers have their own agents too. It's a real zoo out there. Anyway from the list available to me, I narrowed it down quickly to just 2-3. Ratings were given, but they are NOT ratings of the provider's success in the health care business. Most were financial institutions that decided they could make a few extra bucks. Thus, take the ratings give with a grain of salt. Questions to ask: how long have they been in the Medicare Supplement business? How frequent and what were the rate increases for this plan and other plans in the last 3-5 years? Was there a reason for larger than normal increases that are viewed as exceptional rather than typical or normal? Do they have eServices on their Internet site? (Note: Most didn't even have a website that focused on their health plans, e.g., Gerber, Forethought). eServices I was looking for were the ability to look at my claims history and status along with prescriptions (if part D included), news re your plans, news beneficial to your health, easy direct contact, etc. Many more questions were asked -- above were ones that mattered the most.

Bottom-line: You have a 6-month window to select a Medicare Supplement plan at age 65. Only during this windos will you be able to obtain a plan WITHOUT underwriting nit-picking though you past medical issues. Here in Texas, insurance companies can look back TWO years for pre-existing conditions. BEWARE: Obamacare's implementation of pre-existing conditions does NOT take effect until 2014 except for this windows and for people under 19. Despite them not basing their selection during the window on questions to you about past health (they can't ask you on an application), they can review medical databases and come back and ask you and then DELAY coverage for pre-existing conditions. Usually this won't happen if you had creditable insurance before applying for Medicare Supplement. HOWEVER, if you miss the window or later want to switch to a different Supplement plan, you are back in the underwriting game as before!

Hopw this was helpful. I realize this is so-o-o high level. Do your homework and list your Peace-of-Mind requirements FIRST.

288. Well, there goes Blue Cross/Blue Shield belly up in Amarillo!

How many other locations will follow suit with Amarillo, TX? Here many doctors and now one of the two largest hospitals will no longer accept Blue Cross/Blue Shield Insurance. Get the picture Obama? It is also getting more difficult to find a doctor who will accept Medicare or Medicaid. So, not only are insurance premiums increasing, choices are disappearing. What I find interesting is that here in Texas is that Blue Cross already had a high-risk insurance pool. Now, I don't know the reasons why Blue Cross is getting shunned here other than rumors that they were unwilling to negotiate prices. It seems quite reasonable that hospitals and doctors are being so hard pressed that they have become unwilling to accept the low-ball pittances from the big boys who think they can manipulate them. Who will eventually win is unknown, but I think I correctly guess who will become the goat until they do come to some compromise. What does one do if they hold Blue Cross insurance and now it is no longer accepted? What a mess!

280. We're Back

Sorry for abandoning you during the long summer doldrum months, but I was putting my money to use rather than watching it sit and just get crispy and brown lying in the sun. If you remember, I suggested to get out of the market around 11,200-11,300 and forget about trying to beat the big boys in their game of manipulating the market to tweak out gains (from we low-life individuals) and to boost their egos beating other big boys. You just can't ignore the manipulators -- hedge funds, trust funds, brokers, etc. -- who rely on their computer trading tools to automatically kick off trades, hoping to best other players. Also remember the downside effects President O's team has cast upon us. I wish my predictions would have been wrong, but the O-factor proved them all right. Thanks O for the booming economy, especially for the $787B (actually above $800B now) stimulus that was supposed to CREATE jobs! At 9.6 % unemployment, actually more in the Private Sector, we continue to slither on the basement floor's slime. Maybe this November will bring a spark of light when the Dems get to pack their ear-mark bags and get out of town. America needs a radical change (not a radical O-change though) -- reducing government spending is way over due. Let's first repeal a few money-sucking laws railroaded through by the Dems. But, let's not stop there. If the Republicans drag their butt reducing government spending and continue to allow ridiculous ear marks we're still doomed.

So, what have we been doing? We= Samantha and her human master who gets to type in these silly entries. The summer was consumed with the garden, of course, The heat out here in Texas -- mid to upper 90's all summer long -- didn't lend itself to growing tomatoes too well. I'll never learn this farmer stuff -- much too complicated (soil conditions, weather, insects, fertilizers, etc.). Did get some gret tasting sweet corn once the protein was removed from the ear ends. Squash struggled a lot, beans caught the same virus/blight as the tomatoes. However, the cold-weather crops did well -- turnips, beets, carrots, spinach, lettuce, onions, tyfon, Chinese cabbage. My second corn crop is about 2 feet tall and I'm trying to get a second bean crop going since the first was pathetic.

Anything else? Yep. Had a Four Season's sun room attachment put on to my covered porch and now have a 200 sq foot, tiled, temperature-controlled sun room. Well, let's say, the wife has a reading room. Got some great deals off the Internet (Patioshoppers.com) on wicker furniture, plus created a brick patio around the new sun room. That's where most of my money was spent productively. But, we then made a mistake (not really) by visiting the local art gallery and saw some beautiful paintings by Bonnie Marris. After searching the Internet, we ordered her "Idle Hours" and "Too Much Information" giclee canvas' and had them framed locally. they now hang in the family room forever to enjoy.

But now what? Is the market ripe? Actually, I've been buying when the market dipped to its valleys -- I use Williams %R to monitor the indexes. Yesterday signaled an oversold condition again (going up anybody?). The only question becomes when will it drop again after it goes up? Well, there is another question: Will it go up now. It did today, but the 50-day average is still below the 200-day average. When the 50-day crosses the 200-day, i.e., becomes greater than the 200-day, we're in for some up-time. If the Williams %R (14 days) when the market again dips is higher (actually lower, when graph line is above last point) I say that signals a long-trend up. Bumpy of course, but I suspect it will sneak up like it did down (see 1-year chart of DJIA and the successive declines of Willians %R curve peaks). I will now expect the William %R peaks to become successively better each time until it reaches the over-bought range (below 20%) and remain in that range for a couple of months. So, hang in there and watch the curves. Buy when there is a signal for over-sold, sell when signal for over-bought. When the curve goes into range, sit tight and let it rock.

All for now. I have several book reviews for you next time.

275. You Are What You Eat

I do believe I posted my feelings about the Food Stamp program in the past. For a similar view, and now correlation evidence between Food Stamps and obesity, read this article. There is no reason why tax payer money via food stamps promote obesity and, therefore, higher health risks for the needy and higher insurance costs for the remainder of us. Food stamps need to be limited ONLY to healthy foods. So, go out and beg for your chips and soda! Unfortunately, it's the kids, who have no inkling of what contributes to good health, that suffer because an irresponsible parent buys the crap.

266. When is it Our Turn?

An article articulating desperate actions by Spain to cut deficits: Cutting civil servant hiring by 90% compared to last year. When will we follow suit? Or haven't blown up the balloon enough and, thus, continue to do the complete opposite? When do we put the fire out instead of fueling it? Similarly, this article re the Eurozone inflation increase is handwriting on the wall for America. How bad have grocery price increases gotten in your area? Usually food prices and energy prices aren't included in the most common measure of inflation. But, when Walmart raises a box of cereal, my staple, by 30% since last week -- total of 37.6% in last 12 months -- and MOST its food even more in last year, you know life is going to get worse. Here's a company that has made discount pricing a household reality. It's becoming uncertain how much of a bargain even Walmart is lately. With more and more of a family's budget going towards staples and oil prices again rising are we again beginning a cycle downturn? Will jobless rates again increase as reported in the Eurozone? Will America continue to print money to hide the real bad economic news? I wouldn't be expecting great company earnings next quarter. Hence, summer doldrums as I previously predicted. Yes, we just heard a report of increased Consumer spending. But, was this just a splurge to cure the long-time blues? A chocolate eating binge to temporarily fix extended depression? Well, I'm going to remain positive -- just ate pounds of chocolate chip cookies last night -- and will believe the rest of America's investors will also remain in a blinded stupor of euphoria as the newspaper rags turn their tales to positive worldwide news -- they report in "attitude" cycles too. Surely the good news like Obama visiting Afghanistan military and Karzai, plus holding Sarkozy's hand in "promising" Iran sanctions in just a few WEEKS (heard that a year ago), and promising the reduction of nuclear arms along with Russia are the special icing flowers on the chocolate cake. However, the real news is the hard efforts the Eurozone is doing to keep its countries from doing a belly-up. Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have been in the news lately with REAL painful, but necessary actions to REALLY try to fix the problems on their side of the ocean. China is starting to crank up their engines again to ensure solid growth despite the protectionist debate by the West. So, in my opinion, while the rest of the world is actually addressing their issues, we continue to use rhetoric promising actions. This always leads to 3-4 weeks of waiting-to-see some results before the s**t hits the fan again. Darn. Just when I was feeling positive again, reality struck! Hang in there -- at least for a few weeks.