1027. It's a NOT a Texas Hold'em Market -- Cash Out Instead

 Post 1024 was the warning. This post notes that I did an All Out in my retirement accounts (no taxes there) to reap the gains before the market dump. I may premature by a couple of days, but better safe than a loss of 15-20%. Usually October is when the large Mutual Fund owners adjust their accounts resulting in a lot of selling activity. The sales at Market will drop the overall market only to create a great buying environment later in November/December. Note that mid-December end-of-year adjustments are usually also done to make their holdings look good for next year causing a week or two of havoc. This time, if you read the post 1024, we are in a late cycle probably passing through a recession phase. Give Humpty Dumpy Joe's economic tax increases and unnecessary spending unheard of by any other administration which will drive debt up, increase prices, lose jobs, etc. -- in other words, DISASTER -- I don't expect we'll pass through a normal or abbreviated recession phase. We might even see a real recession -- i.e., 3 months in a row of decrease GDP which some of the big financial wizards estimate to be a decrease of GDP on full percentage point. Thank you Humpy Dumpy! May you fall off your wall which you should have built along the southern border, instead of inhumanely telling the world to just incur a laborious, dangerous trek through Mexico to our border for their free deportation plane ride back home. The right policy is what Trump left your -- APPLY of the right to enter America in your own country and wait for acceptance. I pray our country escapes the terrorists you allowed into America and the drugs! Post 1021 is your certificate of dumbness. 

And, just WHO elected this clown? Everything he screws up, every life he endangers or causes, every dollar We the People lose, is the fault of those who elected Humpy Dumpy Joe and Kamala. It's humorous when you watch the college student interviews on Gutfeld, but in reality is so scary! Unfortunately, it doesn't stop at their ignorance of the world and life -- another 30-40% are like that and and created more  imbeciles for the future. What will it take to get voters to LEARN BEFORE THEY VOTE? All this chaos today could be avoided!!!

1026. Rename/Remove/Correct/Add Blogger Labels to all or selected posts

 Did you Misspell a Blogger Label and now want to delete it or correct spelling everywhere it was used AND ensure it is gone or the newly corrected one is the one that appears in possible Label selections? Here's how:

1. In Browser go to Blogger.com (this gets you to Blogger Dashboard)

2. Select POSTS on left to see your posts

3. Select the Label Icon (the one that looks like a Tag you put on a suitcase to Label it your bag) on the upper right and enter/select the Incorrectly spelled Label or want you want to remove. Now APPLY to set the filters to list only the posts containing it

4. Now that only the posts with the incorrect label are listed, select MANAGE on top right and check all the posts or only the ones you desire to be changed

5. Again select the Label Tag ICON

6. In the popup the list will first show all the labels used with checkmarks preceding them. UNCHECK the one you want to remove. If you want to replace it with a corrected one or new one, type that one on top. Now APPLY.

Use step 6 to perform whatever you want to do. That is, to just remove a label for the selected posts, just add a new label to selected posts (add it on top), select an existing label or labels you want to add to the posts (these will be in the list with a "-" preceding them and you need to tick it to change to a checkmark. APPLY will perform all desired actions.

1025. Jim Cramer and Important Tips

 I have reviewed most of Jim Cramer's tips and guidelines over the years. Here are the notes I took from his many articles and books:

Trading and Investing are NOT the same – Trading is the buying/selling of stock based on some catalyst. Investing is longer term accumulation of more assets.

 

E x M = P

 

Ten Commandments of Trading:

1. Never turn a trade into an investment. Do your homework and sell a buy later.

2. Your first loss is your best loss – Dump before you lose your pants.

3. Its OK to take a loss when you already have a loss – CLEAN UP that portfolio. It took you too long to take a dump.

4. Never turn a trading gain into an investment loss – corrolary of 1.

5. Tips are for waiters.

6. You don’t have a profit until you sell.

7. Control losses; winners take care of themselves – spend you time identifying potential or actual l9osses and take them. This is first priority.

8. Don’t fear missing anything – there will always be another opportunity and don’t be greedy.

9. Don’t trade headlines.

10. Don’t trade flow.

 

25 Investment Rules:

1. Bulls and Bears make money – Pigs get slaughtered. Take the profits while you can.

2. Its ok to pay taxes.

3. Don’t buy all at once – arrogance is sin.

4. Look for broken stocks, not broken companies. That is, identify stocks that are out of balance with reality of GOOD companies only.

5. Diversification is the only free lunch.

6. BUY and HOMEWORK; not buy and hold. MUST spend an hour per investment per week after it is bought to keep up with news. Dump when you have to; don’t hold and lose.

7. No one ever made a dime panicking.

8. Own the Best of Breed.

9. He who defends everything defends nothing, or why discipline trumps correction – if the analysis sees it as a fleabag dog, be disciplined and treat the sucker now! You may have to get rif of it.

10. The fundamentals must be good on a takeover.

11. Don’t own too many stocks – must have time for homework.

12. Cash and sitting on sidelines are fine alternatives. – wait till right time to buy or sell.

13. No wudda shudda cudda; no 2^nd guessing. – move on, you need to manage future, not past.

14. Expect corrections and don’t be afraid of them.

15. Don’t forget bonds – they get serviced before your stocks.

16. Never subsidize losers with winners – Don’t sell your winners to cover losers.

17. HOPE is not part of the equation. If you use the word HOPE, dump it.

18. Be flexible.

19. When high-level people quit without proper notice, something is wrong – bail out unless they are retiring.

20. Patience is virtue.

21. Ignore TV comments.

22. Wait 30 days after earnings preannounce before a buy.

23. Never underestimate the Wall Street promotion machine – be ready to do opposite.

24. Be able to explain your picks.

25. There is always a Bull somewhere in the market.

 

Spotting Tops:

1. When competition heats up.

2. When management no longer speaks specifics.

3. When a company over-expands – usually reported as integration problems, or trying to mix a slow grower with a fast grower. Compare aplees-to-apples, same-store sales; don’t be fooled by higher revenues as a growth of core business when it was due to new stores that bring with it more management and quality efforts.

4. Watch for Government actions – don’t be blindsided.

5. No place to expand? All states have stores? This could indicate a top.

6. What happened to the Fad? Top time.

7. Accounting problems!

 

Economy Indicators to watch:

1. 4 consecutive CPU increase may signal Fed tightening ahead.

 

Other Cramer tips:

1. BUY CYCLICALS when Multiples are HIGH

2. SELL NON-CYCLICALS when multiples are HIGH

3. Fed has 2 ways to control: (a) change borrowing rates and (b) change quantity of money in market by changing reserves banks are allowed to carry.

4. Claims P/Es correlate to GDP cycle and past can be used as guideline for a stock.

5. Look at EPS growth per year … fastest growing deserves higher P/E. Determine the multiple based on earning growth and then determine the proper price.

6. Compare companies by P/E to determine the norm and whether an anomaly is due to acquisition, mgt. change, new business, etc. or to predict a P/E.

7. Act on cpmpanies that aren’t discovered (#1M-4M) or any company that is not closely followed.

8. Compare dividend percent and history of growth.

9. Know the company’s business driver metrics – use to compare to others and for growth measurement. For example, $/seat in airlines, $/sq foot in realty, shipments per day, profit margin/product, same-store growth.

10. Build cash for Octobers buys (when mutual fund managers drive the prices down)

11. Examine Debt-to-Equity ration … avoid debt unless normal for industry. Some companies incur debt in 4Q (retail) to stock up for Xmas. Others may to buld planes, build more cable systems, etc.

12. Determine whether a stock is “secular” or “cyclical”. Secular stocks NOT dependent on economy and demand higher multiples.

13. Listen to company meetings and announcements.

14. Favor companies growing sales and earnings faster than peers AND S&P and costs less than average.

15. The Value of a DISCOVERED stock will mimic the market. UNDISCOVERED stocks may not.

16. Why do Large Caps grow/decline? (a) due to rotational catalysts, e.g., portfolio mgr. shifts from group to group base on macro backdrop, such as weak economy as dictated by Fed. Involves switching between secular (health, drugs, beverages, food) and cyclical stocks. (b) dure to estimate revisions

17. KNOW HOW sector MOVES! More important than a business. DON’T BUY A STOCK WHEN SECTOR OUT-OF-FAVOR! Look at the CYCLE chart.

 

My Methodologies:

1. Do your homework on stocks owned

2. Check the cycle chart! Know the GDP and CPI numbers and direction.

3. Focus first on losses and loss-candidates for a sell.

4. Buy/Sell: Try WR%. FIRST, look at 2-yr, weekly chart of WR% to determine WHEN to move on a stock. BUY when moving above -20% (short-term moves) or    -80% (longer-term moves). SELL when it moves below -20% or -50 to 80%. THEN consult 3-6 month and daily charts to do actual buy/sell.

 

The CYCLE:

 

GDP	To Do	Fed Action
	Fed tightening on DOWNward Economy
5-4%	SELL papers & chemical (IP, DOW, DD)	Tighten (raise rates)
4-3%	BUY Medical/food (PG, KMB, K, BUD, PFE)	Tighten (raise rates)
3-2%	SELL cyclicals (CR, CAT, MMM)	Tighten/Neutral
2-1.52%	BUY high multiple techs (GOOG, YHOO)	Neutral
1.5-1.25%	SELL metals & minerals (PD, AA, MUE, NEM)	Neutral
1.25%-1%	SELL Gold; BUY Banks & Retailers	Neutral
1%	Fed getting ready to EASE or starts	Neutral/Ease
1-0%	BUY Housing, BUY Autos	Ease
0 to -2%	Look for bottom (possible recession) and BUY Low Multiple techs (IBM, INTC)	Ease
-2% to 1%	Economy starts UP	Ease/Neutral
1%-2%	BUY Paper & Chemicals	Ease
2%-3%	SELL Medical and food	Neutral
2.5%-3%	BUY cyclicals before Fed tightens (M prob high)	Neutral
3%	Fed starts tightening again to void off inflation	Tighten
3-4%	SELL Banks, Auto, Retailer, Housing	Tighten
3.75-5%	BUY Metals and minerals	Tighten
Stocks oblivious to cycles: Oil & Oil Services, defense, Aerospace, Telecommunications

1024. We are beginning the LATE cycle of the Business Cycle -- Beware Stock owners

 Fidelity's Viewpoint Article is the 2021 version of a more complete 2017 article describing how to invest during the 4 different cycles of the Business Cycle. I maintains it's conclusions despite being a briefer version. 

Back in March 2017 when I read the previous version, I had penciled in dates of the cycles:

Mid-Early = 4/2017

Mid-Mid = 4/2018

Mid-Late = 10/2022

Beginning of Recession Cycle = 4/2024

So, what does this mean? Let me note some of the key points for the cycle I believe we are in. All this is in the current article referenced above.

Where the MID Cycle was remembered for growth peaking, strong credit growth, good profits that peaked peaked, a neutral policy, and inventories and sales growth reaching equilibrium, we find ourselves already about 8 months into the LATE Cycle that usually lasts 1.5 years. Here is what we can expect shortly: Growth moderating, Credit tightening, Earnings under pressure, Policy Contractionary, Inventories grow, Sales growth falls.

Previous recent posts note the mitigation attempts by Humpy Dumpy Joe -- mainly government spending and hand outs (94 year old mother-in-law will probably be dead before she ever receives her third stimulus check) -- aimed at presenting a rosy picture for a grim disease. It won't last long before even the average citizen to finally wake up. Until then, probably 75% will be clueless in the smoke stirred up from all the dog and pony shows.

Anyway, which sectors are in favor and which to avoid during the LATE CYLE and then the inevitable Recession Cycle? A chart I reproduced here from the 2017 version and from some of notes from some of Jim Cramer's articles and books follows with some differences:

Sector                                      Early     Mid     Late     Recession

Financials                                   +

Consumer Discretionary            ++                                    --

Info Technology                         ++         +        --              --

Industrials                                   ++         +                        --

Materials                                                  --        ++            -

Consumer Staples                         -                      +            ++

Health Care                                   -                     ++           ++

Energy                                          --                     ++

Telecom                                        --                                    ++

Utilities                                         --         -            +           ++    

Jim Cramer suggests that in this Late Cycle when the Fed begins tightening (it's tapering is first) at an expected 3% GDP, we should be buying food and medical stocks (seculars, e.g., PFE, ABBV, BUD, etc.). As economy shrinks to 2% GDP, we should begin selling cyclicals, e.g., CAT, IR. Still at 2% GDP we should be buying Large Techs such as AAPL, GOOG, etc.. As we continue to fall in strength, Sell Metals and minerals. Now get ready to jump into Financials when GDP approaches 1% and the Fed talks easing (that's printing money baby) and teasing consumers to buy. Retailers should benefit in rush of buying. Easing will take a few months of convincing to turn around housing and auto market and to get us back on an upward trend into another Business cycle Early Cycle and out of the Recession Cycle (not necessarily a Recession).

If you are like me, the recession choices of Energy and Utilities never happens -- they are always a loser in the long portfolio. 

Now, the caveat: Long Secular Cycles (10-30 years) will affect the smaller business cycles (1-10) years). If you are a long-investor thinker, would you ever dump your Technology and Health Care stocks just to play the Business Cycle? No. I read the above chart as a slowdown (-, --) or increase (+, ++) of portfolio choices during the cycle. But with outside factors like Covid and Humpty Dumpty Joe's plans for taxes a distortion of the above chart and Cramer's guidelines become just Rules of Thumb (ROT). Oops, sorry WOKE people, ROT is on the do not use list!

Bottom Line conclusion: I'd pay attention to the AVOID list generated by my analysis of LATE Cycle Business Cycle caught in the global, very negative, economy outlook. What will I do? Probably forget about the LATE and RECESSION choices this Business Cycle and SELL everything in my non-taxable accounts to avoid the 10-20% market crash coming shortly! Then I'll buy back in with some consideration of the chart and Cramer's tips into whichever cycle is driving the business cycle. 

So, if you remember Sam and her crystal ball which always guided you and me, she just sent a signal down to me to dump when techs next jump up. That's got to be very soon!

1023. Read Post 412 again re inflation, Mitigating pain by Gov't spending and handouts

 Reviewing the past sometimes reveals the destruction in progress by our current President and his administration and what's on our front steps waiting for the door to open.  Here's some snippets from Post 412 re "the Ten Million Dollar Gamble" by Russ Koesterich.

> 5/6 of budget = Entitlement programs, defense, and interest we have to pay on debt. 

> Slashing debt and deficits is hard to do when 45% of the population pay NO TAXES. The wealthy can't come close to helping us climb out of debt by increased taxes alone. Middle class MUST be taxed too. Even then, Entitlements must be reduced.

> Government tends to mitigate pain to those in trouble and the middle class INSTEAD of doing what must be done to reduce debt. Mitigating pain is a coverup that leads to much worse effects down the road. Handouts are killing us. Hard to take away and more and more want them. Just why do we continue to extend unemployment benefits? To mitigate pain. Result, we go further in debt to pay the extensions.

> Inflation signals (already knocking on our door):

1. Unemployment decreasing [note: inflation LAGS job growth by at least a year. Normally when inflation is 3% job growth will be <1.5%; If > 1% then there are more jobs than people. watch non-farm job reports 1st Friday of month at bls.gov/ces] which causes
2. Increase in Wages
3.Manufacturing Capacity Utilization >>80% means manufacturing can't keep up with demand and prices rise. [federalreserve.gov/releases/g17]
4.Money Supply grows too fast [federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/h6.html]. NOTE: there are long lags between money supply increase and inflation. In '60s it took 4 years. Watch M2 > 6% .
5. Fed Actions, like monetizing debt will increase money supply if banks loan out the money [federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm balance sheet should now be shrinking from 2.3T. If not, look for inflation.

NOTE; Despite lags in inflation, the market reacts sooner anticipating the future.

> The vicious destructive cycle where large deficits lead to higher interest rates sometime in future and economic destruction:

Gov't needs to sell more Treasury bonds to spend OR what is happening today, Treasury will taper, i.e., gradually reduce the buying of bonds (same affects), which leads to (=>)

Higher supply of bonds =>

Lower price of bonds (supply & demand) =>

Higher interest rates (interest moves opposite bond prices) =>

Higher mortgage, student loans, car loans, all loan rates =>

Affects stabilization of housing market =>

Less people can qualify for a loan. 

Higher rates =>

Slows economy (both commercial and government will spend more on interest leaving less to put toward growth objectives) =>

Weaker job market. =>

Less productivity =>

Poorer economy

Humpty Dumpty Joe needs to stop reading Fairy Tales, dozing on the job, and pay attention to what affects Capitalism.

That's a wish that will never happen when Socialists and Marxists control Joe's strings! Guy can't even go to the bathroom anymore without a reminder to wipe and wash his hands.

1022. Couldn't be explained better -- You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it

 

“You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.  What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is the beginning of the end of any nation.  You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."

 

* Adrian Rogers, 1931 *