1165. Let's return to Wall Street stuff-9/27 Update

 The COVID era didn't only stifle everyone with it masks, distancing, and stay home from school and work idiocies. Hopefully we all learned how wrong a government can be and how much each of the TV bobble-heads say is only what furthers them along to being the perceived wise person or to cover up their ignorance. Not the subject of this entry, just needed to get it out!

Today, we look at where the Wall Street Markets are heading and how to get back in. For the last year I have been essentially out of the Techs and other risky or less favorable stocks. The private companies have more than surprised me in that regardless of the poor economy and political environment it continued to grow and even sustain that growth until the beginning of this week. I was out collecting my 4.75-5% in a broker’s account for large amounts in addition to my 7-10% preferred stocks. So, I didn’t miss out on much at all while the indices climbed. All this generated interest was in my IRA accounts, so, dream on Taxman those percentages were Tax Free!  This week we took some hits dropping the indexes and I am predicting another poor week ahead. I nibbled over the last 3-6 months when the market dropped gradually getting back into the market with stronger selections and more balanced portfolio (always something to improve). Now, I am waiting for next Friday, the day the markets move big up/down to catch a buying wave. MSFT is back down to the level I sold it months ago and I most definitely need that stock back in the portfolio. Most others I rebought piece by piece averaging back in gradually., like AAPL, AMZN. TSLA was a loser and I think still. EV’s are NOT the short future. Plus, China hold the power in batteries.

Is it really time to go full in? Long-term, yes. I’d say there is a LOT of crap out there to consider which is negative, but the question is how will the private companies fare. A positive is AI. How much hype is there re Artificial Intelligence (AI)? If the media or TV bobble heads would really understand AI they would stop talking about Goggle algorithms. AI is far more complicated and useful than making the people believe it is the keyword-search functions and algorithms and how someone is going to manipulate it more than the Dems have already with its collaboration with the Techs and the numbskull Media sheep. AI was being developed back in the 1970’s at IBM Watson Research. Do you really think it is a keyword processor algorithm that took 50 years to advance? I don’t have time to tell you the so-many useful applications and misuses. Just believe me that we have been waiting for this learn-as-you-go, explore-all-the data in the world, analyze it utilizing thousands of expert analyses and processes, then present a solution that no one expert could ever imagine. This baby is a spark to unimaginable growth of new companies and expansion of existing ones, let alone, improvement to our lives. Think medical diagnoses, think Network performance improvements, think manufacturing marketing analysis, improving profitability, streamlining the manufacturing of products. We lived in a world where even the “best” manager couldn’t keep up with process improvements. Not anymore. Long-term, you MUST be in the Tech Markets. We only saw a tiny piece with the CLOUD business companies becoming available to manage data on their systems to offload and faster process other company data. Now here is where AI can improve it’s the algorithms to rapidly and completely improve the connectivity and management of the Cloud for its many Applications and Users. The cloud alone driven by MSFT, AMZN, IBM and the likes will see major benefits in products and services. Health Industry components including hospitals, doctors, etc. will become substantially better prepared and develop more beneficial services. These Techs must be in a portfolio. Of course, for the riskier stock players, small Tech companies have huge potential. So, if you are still bringing in work income its time to put on the Lont-term beanie and jump in based on the risk you can tolerate.

The Fed maintained rates this time. Inflation is going back up, thanks mainly to Oil increases. Humpty Dumpty Joe continues to waddle with his head in the mud; the people actually running the government aren’t much better. We still have a massive immigration problem killing our cities. Who created it? Our government with its can-kicking for decades. Why we never updated the immigration policies to allow the proper type and quantity of workers  and an improved entry policy for legal entries I cannot understand and have been wondering that for at least 30-40 years! Joe has NO CLUE what it all about and what must be done. We desperately need to overhaul the whole immigration process. That will never happen until we get the clowns in the House and Senate out to pasture and replace them with real thinkers and movers. An outside consultant to run meetings and planning sessions would be most extremely invaluable. Never see it! They know only how to play the beat up the other party game. Gets me back to a very long-ago post (you can find it by entering keywords) re abolish the two-party system. Anyway, I’ll support the let’s-put-an-end to this illegal migration that is killing America. The Wall should have been completed! Joe, you are clueless! Then yesterday he was back reading his speech on TV blasting the Republicans for the immigration mess. I only hear a snip it or two, for I have better things to do than listen to his babble. I don’t know how Trump would deport everyone as he claims he would do, but this illegal crap BEFORE the legal ones is real disturbing. Plus, not know where everyone is and who came in is a major National Security threat. What are the Dems thinking? Yes, I know that answer – more votes down the line while them sacrifice life today!

Back to the Market. I have primarily kept the same portfolio of investments for several decades and have beaten every mixed investment model out there. Create a portfolio with just a few stocks. Don’t ever put more than 20% into risky stocks unless you have many years left of work. Always buy for Long-term vision. Avoid the news (generally), meaning don’t react to it. It will only change in the short-term. Breathe and enjoy the outdoors more, away from the financial stuff. Use the Williams%R graph indicator to learn when to buy/sell and overall market changes. I have a lot I can share with little time to do it. So, enjoy the investment journey and learn, learn, learn. Homework is Every Day; Work is every day. Commit and make an effort. Good Luck. 

------------------------------

9/27/2023

Prediction happened. Couldn't wait for the Friday move...could be up big or down, but back to positive next week. Therefore, I'm back in earlier than waiting for the absolute lows tomorrow or later today. 😉 

1129. How do you reduce murders by use of guns?

 Gun control laws have been argued forever! Why punish the noncriminal gun owners who have guns for protection or hunting? Can't we just create a law that makes it a mandatory death sentence for anyone convicted of murder-1? Maybe that would deter the criminal owners who usually have illegal guns, i.e., no valid ownership and/or serial numbers removed. Would this not deter some of the criminals? Why argue which guns should be banned or restricted? Just kill the killers - Mandatory death sentences.

THEN we can argue whether assault weapons should be banned/restricted. I'm all in favor of my constitutional rights to own a gun. BUT, it must be LEGAL and owned for PROTECTION or sporting use. I personally see no use for assault weapons. I personally rely and depend on law enforcement and the military for defense and protection where such weapons would be required. But, discussion can come after the above control! Hopefully that enforcement will deter assault weapons too. 

Of course people could argue why stop there. That is, why stop if just a gun is used? We already have laws for murder-1 and the states have the right to determine sentence of death or other. Let the states govern non-gun murders as they do now. Let's just make it impossible for criminals to escape a death sentence when a gun is used -- one of the easiest, quickest, and most effective ways to kill someone. How about a grenade or other explosion you ask? Or some way even worse than a gun? Then I would call that terrorism! If someone or more dies because of terrorism, I would think laws are already present to get rid of them! But, I wouldn't hesitate to add these weapons/causes to the gun mandatory sentence.

Come on legal system. We need to control this level of crime. The legal defense lawyers should not be given a crack to defend. Mandatory is mandatory...Period!

1027. It's a NOT a Texas Hold'em Market -- Cash Out Instead

 Post 1024 was the warning. This post notes that I did an All Out in my retirement accounts (no taxes there) to reap the gains before the market dump. I may premature by a couple of days, but better safe than a loss of 15-20%. Usually October is when the large Mutual Fund owners adjust their accounts resulting in a lot of selling activity. The sales at Market will drop the overall market only to create a great buying environment later in November/December. Note that mid-December end-of-year adjustments are usually also done to make their holdings look good for next year causing a week or two of havoc. This time, if you read the post 1024, we are in a late cycle probably passing through a recession phase. Give Humpty Dumpy Joe's economic tax increases and unnecessary spending unheard of by any other administration which will drive debt up, increase prices, lose jobs, etc. -- in other words, DISASTER -- I don't expect we'll pass through a normal or abbreviated recession phase. We might even see a real recession -- i.e., 3 months in a row of decrease GDP which some of the big financial wizards estimate to be a decrease of GDP on full percentage point. Thank you Humpy Dumpy! May you fall off your wall which you should have built along the southern border, instead of inhumanely telling the world to just incur a laborious, dangerous trek through Mexico to our border for their free deportation plane ride back home. The right policy is what Trump left your -- APPLY of the right to enter America in your own country and wait for acceptance. I pray our country escapes the terrorists you allowed into America and the drugs! Post 1021 is your certificate of dumbness. 

And, just WHO elected this clown? Everything he screws up, every life he endangers or causes, every dollar We the People lose, is the fault of those who elected Humpy Dumpy Joe and Kamala. It's humorous when you watch the college student interviews on Gutfeld, but in reality is so scary! Unfortunately, it doesn't stop at their ignorance of the world and life -- another 30-40% are like that and and created more  imbeciles for the future. What will it take to get voters to LEARN BEFORE THEY VOTE? All this chaos today could be avoided!!!

1024. We are beginning the LATE cycle of the Business Cycle -- Beware Stock owners

 Fidelity's Viewpoint Article is the 2021 version of a more complete 2017 article describing how to invest during the 4 different cycles of the Business Cycle. I maintains it's conclusions despite being a briefer version. 

Back in March 2017 when I read the previous version, I had penciled in dates of the cycles:

Mid-Early = 4/2017

Mid-Mid = 4/2018

Mid-Late = 10/2022

Beginning of Recession Cycle = 4/2024

So, what does this mean? Let me note some of the key points for the cycle I believe we are in. All this is in the current article referenced above.

Where the MID Cycle was remembered for growth peaking, strong credit growth, good profits that peaked peaked, a neutral policy, and inventories and sales growth reaching equilibrium, we find ourselves already about 8 months into the LATE Cycle that usually lasts 1.5 years. Here is what we can expect shortly: Growth moderating, Credit tightening, Earnings under pressure, Policy Contractionary, Inventories grow, Sales growth falls.

Previous recent posts note the mitigation attempts by Humpy Dumpy Joe -- mainly government spending and hand outs (94 year old mother-in-law will probably be dead before she ever receives her third stimulus check) -- aimed at presenting a rosy picture for a grim disease. It won't last long before even the average citizen to finally wake up. Until then, probably 75% will be clueless in the smoke stirred up from all the dog and pony shows.

Anyway, which sectors are in favor and which to avoid during the LATE CYLE and then the inevitable Recession Cycle? A chart I reproduced here from the 2017 version and from some of notes from some of Jim Cramer's articles and books follows with some differences:

Sector                                      Early     Mid     Late     Recession

Financials                                   +

Consumer Discretionary            ++                                    --

Info Technology                         ++         +        --              --

Industrials                                   ++         +                        --

Materials                                                  --        ++            -

Consumer Staples                         -                      +            ++

Health Care                                   -                     ++           ++

Energy                                          --                     ++

Telecom                                        --                                    ++

Utilities                                         --         -            +           ++    

Jim Cramer suggests that in this Late Cycle when the Fed begins tightening (it's tapering is first) at an expected 3% GDP, we should be buying food and medical stocks (seculars, e.g., PFE, ABBV, BUD, etc.). As economy shrinks to 2% GDP, we should begin selling cyclicals, e.g., CAT, IR. Still at 2% GDP we should be buying Large Techs such as AAPL, GOOG, etc.. As we continue to fall in strength, Sell Metals and minerals. Now get ready to jump into Financials when GDP approaches 1% and the Fed talks easing (that's printing money baby) and teasing consumers to buy. Retailers should benefit in rush of buying. Easing will take a few months of convincing to turn around housing and auto market and to get us back on an upward trend into another Business cycle Early Cycle and out of the Recession Cycle (not necessarily a Recession).

If you are like me, the recession choices of Energy and Utilities never happens -- they are always a loser in the long portfolio. 

Now, the caveat: Long Secular Cycles (10-30 years) will affect the smaller business cycles (1-10) years). If you are a long-investor thinker, would you ever dump your Technology and Health Care stocks just to play the Business Cycle? No. I read the above chart as a slowdown (-, --) or increase (+, ++) of portfolio choices during the cycle. But with outside factors like Covid and Humpty Dumpty Joe's plans for taxes a distortion of the above chart and Cramer's guidelines become just Rules of Thumb (ROT). Oops, sorry WOKE people, ROT is on the do not use list!

Bottom Line conclusion: I'd pay attention to the AVOID list generated by my analysis of LATE Cycle Business Cycle caught in the global, very negative, economy outlook. What will I do? Probably forget about the LATE and RECESSION choices this Business Cycle and SELL everything in my non-taxable accounts to avoid the 10-20% market crash coming shortly! Then I'll buy back in with some consideration of the chart and Cramer's tips into whichever cycle is driving the business cycle. 

So, if you remember Sam and her crystal ball which always guided you and me, she just sent a signal down to me to dump when techs next jump up. That's got to be very soon!

1023. Read Post 412 again re inflation, Mitigating pain by Gov't spending and handouts

 Reviewing the past sometimes reveals the destruction in progress by our current President and his administration and what's on our front steps waiting for the door to open.  Here's some snippets from Post 412 re "the Ten Million Dollar Gamble" by Russ Koesterich.

> 5/6 of budget = Entitlement programs, defense, and interest we have to pay on debt. 

> Slashing debt and deficits is hard to do when 45% of the population pay NO TAXES. The wealthy can't come close to helping us climb out of debt by increased taxes alone. Middle class MUST be taxed too. Even then, Entitlements must be reduced.

> Government tends to mitigate pain to those in trouble and the middle class INSTEAD of doing what must be done to reduce debt. Mitigating pain is a coverup that leads to much worse effects down the road. Handouts are killing us. Hard to take away and more and more want them. Just why do we continue to extend unemployment benefits? To mitigate pain. Result, we go further in debt to pay the extensions.

> Inflation signals (already knocking on our door):

1. Unemployment decreasing [note: inflation LAGS job growth by at least a year. Normally when inflation is 3% job growth will be <1.5%; If > 1% then there are more jobs than people. watch non-farm job reports 1st Friday of month at bls.gov/ces] which causes
2. Increase in Wages
3.Manufacturing Capacity Utilization >>80% means manufacturing can't keep up with demand and prices rise. [federalreserve.gov/releases/g17]
4.Money Supply grows too fast [federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/h6.html]. NOTE: there are long lags between money supply increase and inflation. In '60s it took 4 years. Watch M2 > 6% .
5. Fed Actions, like monetizing debt will increase money supply if banks loan out the money [federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm balance sheet should now be shrinking from 2.3T. If not, look for inflation.

NOTE; Despite lags in inflation, the market reacts sooner anticipating the future.

> The vicious destructive cycle where large deficits lead to higher interest rates sometime in future and economic destruction:

Gov't needs to sell more Treasury bonds to spend OR what is happening today, Treasury will taper, i.e., gradually reduce the buying of bonds (same affects), which leads to (=>)

Higher supply of bonds =>

Lower price of bonds (supply & demand) =>

Higher interest rates (interest moves opposite bond prices) =>

Higher mortgage, student loans, car loans, all loan rates =>

Affects stabilization of housing market =>

Less people can qualify for a loan. 

Higher rates =>

Slows economy (both commercial and government will spend more on interest leaving less to put toward growth objectives) =>

Weaker job market. =>

Less productivity =>

Poorer economy

Humpty Dumpty Joe needs to stop reading Fairy Tales, dozing on the job, and pay attention to what affects Capitalism.

That's a wish that will never happen when Socialists and Marxists control Joe's strings! Guy can't even go to the bathroom anymore without a reminder to wipe and wash his hands.

1022. Couldn't be explained better -- You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it

 

“You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.  What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is the beginning of the end of any nation.  You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."

 

* Adrian Rogers, 1931 *

1021. Humpty Dumpty Joe [Biden]

 I've been quiet enough. It took me a long time to get on Obama (OBlunder) when in his times he screwed up America along with his sidekick Frail Joe. Newsmax had a clip of Obama at dome toast where a comedian cracked some jokes about V.P. Humpty Dumpty (yes, Joe Biden) which in 2014 already revealed his lack of cognitive facilities. SCARY. I suppose those who voted the clown in ignored that in 2020 election. I also blame those voters for the recent suicide bombing in Afghanistan!. Thanks, Joe! And thanks Dem voters for killing our 13 service men! Maybe you should stay home from the next elections. Or maybe you'll shortly get to see Kamala take over and really screw up OUR America. Don't you have ANY common sense. Sam, my beloved dog had more. Eventually Humpty Dumpty will fall, and the king's men and horses won't save him just like they can't now. Why? Because he ignored all intelligence reports and advice. His heart, his personal feelings, were more important than managing the credibility of America and protecting America. This WOKENESS needs to cease Dems! Then another 100 blogs that I want to avoid on a subject that mind-boggles me is how any human with common sense can pickup WOKE issues, so miniscule compared to others and make it the governing issues in their lives. And then try to push it on others who are focused on the big picture and reality. I applaud Gutfeld and his show and particularly Tyrus who brings common sense to the front. Thank you Tyrus. 

Back to Humpty Dumpty.

Let's blame it on Trump. You hear that before? Instead of I take the blame or even I take most of the blame or even I take some of the blame. But no-o-o. Humpty claimed he just followed the Trump plan. WRONG. He accepted the Trump mission/goal but dismissed his plan! He created his on plan (I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he thought about the exit from Afghanistan while sitting on the pot trying to remember why he was there. ANYBODY with common sense knows you don't leave Americans and military assets to the victor and enemy. And that is precisely who the Taliban is. Humpty KNEW the Taliban were overtaking Afghanistan many months before as progression charts show, yet, he comes out as assures us that Kabul won't fall. ANYBODY with common sense knows you don't provide names of American military and citizens to terrorists and make identification down to biometrics available to terrorists of those who are against the terrorists. Yet, Humpty did! Anybody knows you can't rely on terrorists to protect Americans when evacuating (running from them) by laying your heart out on their table and pleading! Humpty did! ANYBODY knows you don't give up a military airbase when you know you need it in the future for any possible reason, like evacuation or future terrorism in the Mideast. Can I stop now. I'm already beyond my anger threshold. Humpty Dumpty MUST fall. Then Kamala gets to screw up more and MUST FALL. Unfortunately, thanks to you people who voted for the schmucks We the People of America who believe in America and Democracy get to fall with you. Idiots! Do you idiots understand the next in line after Kamala is Pelosi? We'll need 8 years of another Donald Trump to get us close to the top of the water we are about to drown in. 

I recommend a change to the Constitution and clarity of the Constitution:

There is NO requirement to have two political parties written in the Constitution. Change the Constitution to be specific, stating that the government of our Republic (Yes, dumb Dem voters, America is a Republic and "Democrats" party does NOT stand for Democracy! Instead, it appears they are pushing Socialism/Marxism. The misleading name itself has blindsided democratic voters. Gutfeld needs to get to Georgetown students again and ask them what the name means to them compared to the name "Republican" party. They ask them why all the Socialistic policies and plans are being pushed and ask them again is this Democracy?).

Back on track: 1. Change the Constitution to be specific, stating that the government of our Republic will NOT have a House and Senate where the room is separated by factions. Instead, seats will be alphabetical. 2. There will be NO funding of candidates in an election, or for advertising campaigns except to the one on the tax forms where one can donate just to everybody. 3. The ones presiding over the House and Senate will be an individual elected by his/her peers for the sole purpose of running the meetings, NOT the one who determined what will be on the agenda. That will be a committee who presents the agenda. It needs to be unanimous in the committee to reject a request NOT to present something to vote on the floor. This does not mean on matters such as a change on toilet paper in rest rooms. It does mean ONLY COMPLETELY DOCUMENTED bills/litigations/discussions pertinent to the governing of America's finances, economic responsibilities, world issues. Of course, I have not thoroughly provided all entities that should be included. But the bottom line is everything must be DOCUMENTED and presented with detailed explanation, reasons, expected outcomes. If they need a consultant to run the committee meeting like any other private company's short- and long-term planning sessions, then an independent company should be selected -- sort of like independent accountants are chosen by private originations. MEETINGS need to be administered by a consultant skilled to be impartial and only to gather findings, facts, and to determine conclusions and recommendations. Our government is run meeting by led by politicians! Not impartial consultants with the expertise to do so!

I'm tired of thinking and typing for now. I might return with more re changes needed.

Let me finish this entry with this, particularly for the people who voted Joe Humpty Dumpty as our president:

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again

DON'T try to substitute AMERICA for Humpty Dumpty!!! We the People will more than just defend that! Wake up you WOKErs and share, at least what's left, of America's greatness and freedom before you kill it more.

Humpty Dumpty Joe nods as he barely stands on his feet
While America continues to take yet another defeat.
Soon he'll be asleep with a bowl of chocolate chip ice cream
Where he'll add flowers and puppies to his dream.
 
The "Immigration" Wall to protect America from drugs, criminals, terrorists is now dead
But that isn't as important as the cupcakes and snowflakes in his head.
As the Afghanistan evacuation flop destroys America's credibility, leadership, and worse, human life 
Joe thinks it is more important to follow his old woman's heart and let America be cut up with a dull, now bloody, knife.
 
It's time to go Humpty Dumpy Joe
For Your leadership can't get any more low
Kamala is next to continue your show
And she'll be even worse, We the People all know!

PRAY FOR AMERICA.

995. DOJ Election Crimes Branch and Guidelines

 Richard Pilger, the Head of the DOJ Crimes Branch resigned as per November 10, 2020 article here . Guess he didn't understand his responsibilities even though he was the editor of  "Federal Prosecution of Election Offenses", Eighth Edition, December 2017, Edited by: Richard C. Pilger, Director Election Crimes Branch Public Integrity Section presented  here and referred to as FPEO in this post.

Within his document is stated:

"Justice Department supervision over the enforcement of all criminal statutes and prosecutive theories involving corruption of the election process, criminal patronage violations, and campaign financing crimes is delegated to the Criminal Division’s Public Integrity Section. This Headquarters’ consultation policy is set forth in the U.S. DEP’T OF JUSTICE, U.S. ATTORNEYS’ MANUAL (USAM), Section 9-85.210. In 1980, the Election Crimes Branch was created within the Public Integrity Section to manage this supervisory responsibility. The Branch is headed by a Director and staffed on a case-by-case basis with Section prosecutors experienced in handling the investigation and prosecution of election crimes."

If you note, the FPEO is an INTERNAL ONLY document that used as a guideline and not a restrictive or firmly defined process that the DOJ may take. You will also find some exceptions in the Pilger FPEO document that he also agreed with.

Sounds to me that Mr. Pilger didn't care about the Constitution and the integrity of voting as much as the Trump supporters and only in his "master piece" he created that holds no water even -- pen in one hand and sieve in other. One must challenge why he wrote such a document in the first place!

994. Letter to Lou Dobbs re Election Software Corruption

 As you can see below, my letter to Lou Dobbs to enlighten him re how software can be corrupted itself was corrupted (possibly). I've never seen a returned email failure like this one. But skip over the email message garbage and you too can be enlightened re software corruption, although just a highlight and just a small fraction of the possibilities.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	failure notice
Date:	9 Nov 2020 23:25:25 -0000
From:	MAILER-DAEMON@mail.hostingplatform.com
To:xxxxxx	[privacy change]

Hi. This is the qmail-send program at mail.hostingplatform.com.
I'm afraid I wasn't able to deliver your message to the following addresses.
This is a permanent error; I've given up. Sorry it didn't work out.

<lou@loudobbstonight.com>: user is over quota

----------------------------------------- The actual letter to Lou --------------------
Mr. Dobbs,

I am retired now but took my Computer Science degree to IBM in 1974 where I started in operation system development, design, testing, etc. I spent 23 years with IBM through system engineer, marketing, management, and finally I/T Mgt. and Process Consulting. I'd like to share some EASY ways software can be corrupted:

1. The software provider could have course written code that allowed modification, e.g., making it take a non normal but desired path based on human input when starting or when already running. Likewise, any hacker or hacker who implanted a virus could make a program behave the way they want. Think Ransomware!

2. Given above, it is simple code to include an "IF" condition that keys on either a human command/input parameter OR checks the computer date and time to either react the way they want it to after that date/time or even between a certain time period. Here are a few scenarios of corruption possibilities:

  a. Code already exists from provider, either by them knowingly, or by an employee with authorization to manage the code, or by a hacker who implants a virus (code) that asks "is it the day after the day normal election results are completed? If so, then count every ballot read as Democratic.

b. Same as a. above but do so only for a period of 4 hours then go back to normal.

c. Instead of a time trigger, wait until a specific batch of ballots are read, but which are identified uniquely to be counted as all Democratic, e.g., name the batch MAIL-INs so the corrupt code is alerted to take the Democratic path only.

REMEMBER. It only takes ONE "IF" statement/Command in the code along with ONE "GOTO" Democratic path. Very little code and that could be hard-coded  or hacked into the provided software.

Things a forensic computer science expert could do to determine corruption:

1. Confiscate the original code from the provider and compare it (date, version, build, size, etc.) and check it against the code running if it wasn't already corruptly replaced. A difference immediately indicates some corruption.

2. Every Operating System has some type of Logging of events, such as a program starting, a modification to a running programs, a program stopping that alo reports the version/build/date/size. These need to be examined.

3. Run a sample batch of ballots, say 50-50 expected, on a computer who date is set for election day and day after, and then various days after that. All results should match. If not, there is date/time specific corruption code present.

4. Follow on to 3. is to determine if all strange behaviors in counts started at the same date/time or withing the same period. Another indication that hacked/corrupted code is present.


I can think of even more I would look at to quickly identify corrupt code. Surely SOMEBODY is doing this, I hope. I just wanted to bring your knowledge level up to completely understand HOW code can be corrupted. Please us this to question the election results and get the SOMEBODIES busy.

A second and even more important thought beyond just the election corruption: I am astonished the Republicans can't find a Champion who wants to fix the Democratic indoctrination of people at educational institutes. We cannot expect even 50% of the voting population to understand the economy. Thanks for trying every day. Your preaching to me for example yield no more than I already know. It's the other 50% who never tune in that will never get it. Trump's biggest failure was antagonizing those 50% and all it's leaders. All great things he has done for us has gone unnoticed, or should I say ignored, by the clueless. Yes, I am angry that he took such a debasing position. Where do we go from here?

And here is the most simplistic kicker I think that is driving people to the Democratic Party: It's NAME! The ignorant have no clue that America was a REPUBLIC and they incorrectly associate DEMOCRACY to the party name Democratic. Not once have I ever heard anybody explain this to the people. Surely, the indoctrination may even teach this falsehood! America needs to rename the parties maybe to Liberal and Conservatives, or A and B, or Tiger and Bears. We need to STOP using Democrats -- maybe change it to Socialists!

Lou, keep up the good work. I know your lessons do help those listening. However, behind the scene we need to find the Champion who i going to be relentless in understanding the issues and changing the direction and education. I started blogging during the Obama years re all the corruption and measures to correct it -- all gone to waste for those 8 years and 4 more. We the People will be no more than dirt in another 12 years. Unfortunately, I might still be around since my mom lived until 98!

Please stick to your guns Lou!

993. 2020 Michigan software glitch? More so human hacking.

 In regards to the Silicaon Graybears BLOG entry at here .

Interesting that I too am from the 70's and at that time did Operating System design/programming/testing/etc. evolving through the years to I/T Consultant. This incident is NOT a software glitch. I can think of scenarios how this happened, but they are only conjecture without examining. For example, ANY program can be written where it changes its behavior, e.g. counting votes correctly to intentional incorrectly at a specific time (date, time to milliseconds). Hackers use this to trigger events on a specific day and time. Who is to say that the software wasn't hard coded to do this the day after normal election counting days at precisely the time mail-in ballots were to begin? It could do this automatically if coded that way, or it could do this if given an external command to do so, or a hacker could do this via a trap-door virus. Many ways to make a program count differently at a specific time or within a specific time window. Rather easy! So, who's to say some HUMAN didn't do this? Can it be determined? Yes. Logging of any human interactions with the running program would capture this. Also, comparing the original software with the running software would identify any variation of in code indicating hacker tampering. Certainly the FBI and NSA have the skills to determine validity of software and hacking. Whatever the result, people would then have peace in their lives again rather than questions, doubts, and a conspiracy theory the rest of their lives. Someone needs to investigate what really happened and be completely transparent. WE the PEOPLE have a right to know. It's the American voting integrity that is at stake, not who won or lost. I could care less about that. But potential corruption must be investigated. How about running the same batch through again, but setting the date on the computer to election day. Different results would imply hacking scheme as indicated. Another scheme could be base on the identification of the source, e.g., normal electronic voting ballots versus mail-in ballots. Surely, some human entered the batch source manually! Enough is enough...I certainly can't examine from here. And I'm retired and really don't want to dig through modern day programming. But, don't we have experts in the FBI. I would require the FBI and NSA to both investigate and do so independently to rule out corruption there too.

----------------------------

SiGraybeardNovember 8, 2020 at 1:04 PM

While I find your idea of the software being hard coded to cheat based on the system clock really good, I don't trust either the FBI or the NSA to do that investigation. The FBI has been running a coup against Trump for four years and suddenly they're going to be honest?

The problem with doing forensic software analysis is that there's a hard deadline coming to certify the election and it's going to take time to do this through legal channels. And what happens if the Supreme Court finally hears the arguments in two years and the verdict is that the election was corrupt and stolen? Can they scrap it and order a do-over, or award the presidency to Trump after two years of Joe, the Ho, the squad and George Soros? Suspend all elections until every precinct in America works like, well, Florida and has its final results within an hour of the polls closing?

Rich, In Memory of SamNovember 8, 2020 at 6:01 PM

I'm strongly in your camp, don't get me wrong. My conclusions are based on your conclusion that the coup has been going on for ages and unfortunately there is little we can do about the corruption other than prevent it in the future. I'm very open to any idea that can work. I also agree re FBI and NSA, thus I suggested INDEPENDENTLY. I should have said with private sector consultants he uncovering of anything would be useful. However, I agree that this would be a project that will take many years after this lost election. It's unfortunate and makes me angry. I am very grateful of what Trump has done for America AND the world. But, again, unless We the People change things in the next 4 years, our children will be forever lost to who-knows-what. Proving any corruption to this election is of value whenever it can be accomplished. I can only move on in a way that I can; encouraging the experts today to real in any corruption, and, for the sake of our democracy and children, DO SOMETHING about the indoctrination in our schools. The other matter for future is getting the ignorant people out there to understand what the party name of "Democratic" DOES NOT IMPLY democracy and any other part is against it. I really feel the name is an inhibitor and the ignorant vote that way when they obviously can't understand the economy, immigration, etc. Do what we can not and fight the election. That has low probability satisfaction in getting resolved before January. We need some kind of proof. But, we also need to realize that the Republican machine has been sleeping for decades. There is much more to address than this election.

952. CLUELESS and disinformation generating Media!

Do we not have journalists and editors and their papers that want to know about facts or even enough details about what they are writing about before misinforming We the People?

How many times have you jumped to a heading and found the content doesn't support the heading? I would venture to guess that a very large proportion of the public NEVER go beyond the reading of the headline and therefore believe what is said in up to 10 words! For example, I have a close relative, won't specifically cite him/her (will use he/his in following), but he ALWAYS believes and runs with the headline fabricating the facts as he imagines they are and spews the information upon all his friends who blindly pass it down the line, like the game Pass It Down the Alley. until it is radically changed to the imaginations of others and completely wrong when it makes the last on the queue. EXAMPLE: He heard saw the headline that a Vaccine Patch is being tested. He naturally assumed it is a COVID-19 patch and told everyone that SHORTLY there will be a vaccine patch available to resolve the deadly virus issues. REALITY: No COVID-19 vaccine is close and 12-18 months is still the stated time frame at the earliest. PROBLEM: The are people working since at least 2017 on a patch that would replace an injection for vaccines. In other words, a technology that simply does that -- replaces an injection with a patch. But, NOT a specific COVID-19 patch. That requires a discovery and FDA trials of a specific vaccine itself that when available might be deliverable by a patch. Can you imagine the impact of how a simple headline to capture readers can cause mayhem?

Here are another headline/story that I have seen that was misleading: CNN's statement that Kim Jung Un is seriously ill. We've seen this happen before and it was fake news. Again CNN! Get the facts first! Another: All the cats will get COVID-19. Two cases were reported of positive detection. Yet, the contents of the article stated different chemical tests for animals, not the scientific ones for humans being used, were used and how determined was not explained in any detail.

The point is, you will see ONLY a headline that will get your attention. If you don't read the article for content, and do not question the content for accuracy, like I would say 90% of the population, you will believe fake news and worse yet take that incorrect belief to the polls. It's no wonder why this country is so screwed up and divided! THANKS MEDIA! America needs to get a handle on all the crap that comes out of the media and Internet. I don't see anyway of filtering out the crap other than proving some well vetted websites and papers/magazines that provide CORRECT detail and news. It is certainly obvious that the publishers don't care because attention words=revenue and they have insurance to cover their fake news. Maybe the insurance providers need to jack up their costs exponentially. And the lawyers need to start making more case lawsuits against them. It is such a mess and so destructive.

951. COVID-19 Models - Don't be a clueless Dem

Please. Understand how models are created and the limits of them before reacting to all the hoopla by the media who DON'T understand them. Accurate models projecting deaths can't possibly be developers. Why? There isn't enough data about this virus to base them on and and same goes for data with respect to behavior since recognized.

Anybody can develop a forecasting model. Let's use a financial example. Suppose someone assumes the stock market moves according to a linear line upward at 12% on the average. Since there already exists plenty of historical data, I could use history to determine if my forecast projects were close to the linear line model hypothesized. What will be the results? No way Jose. So, someone else assumes the projection curve is exponential  Again, wrong. Without going into what projection is correct, I am simply clarifying that whatever the projection curve you assume, it CAN be checked and refined based on historical data. Well, to a degree that is. There sill still be outliers (differences from the norm) due to specific events that need to be explained. For example, why was the stock market growing at 10% compound growth before 2000 and now only 6.5% today. It was something like that, but I am not stating that it was those percentages or the turning year was 2000. I am stating that events happen that change a long-term model and again need to be factored in when designing a model.

Now COVID-19. We have no history. People first made assumptions that it was like the influenza. In what respects? Anything that could accurately project Covid-19? Nope. But the media picked up on whoever touted such a model to project spread rate and geography. They were wrong! The problem of the model being wrong is not the point. Those knowing it couldn't possibly be accurate had to have something to base decisions on and a base model to change as more facts became known. The problem became the media jumping on it like it was the Holy Grail for predicting death and demise, then exciting or incorrectly lulling the masses to no be concerned. Statistics based on incredible facts are useless and can be made dangerous by clueless media.

As we saw more data become available, more refined models were developed for projections of spread, rate of spread, deaths, etc. Still not enough data and facts are known to ensure an accurate model. But today the total deths were projected to be lower than the previous model. What changed in the model? We will never know. But the problem becomes the Dems will now collect into there ball of hate an accuse Trump for overstating the expected deaths a few weeks back when the model had far less data to work with and the experts were only trying their best to project SOMETHING worse case. So, the political pot will be stirred again and the Dems will blindly want to spend taxpayer money on another witch hunt instead of realizing what a model is OR getting their own experts to develop a model. Watch the senseless reactions to the latest leftest media new headings! That's my prediction for next week.

But, let's be practical and understand models and the experts developing them. Not Trump! We still have no clue why certain states have high rates of infection and death. We still have no real clue whether the mid-west states will follow suit with the NE states. Do realize that the worse was in NY and NJ and then later Michigan and Chigo area. Plus Kentucky and Louisiana. Why? There are hundreds of variables that need to be analyzed to determine why? IF someone can pinpoint the contributing variables then it might be possible to project impact on the mid-west. Until then, we run with inaccuracy and each of us lives with or without hope.

Had we accurate data out of China in January already, a lot of the actions taken might have had even more of a jump start. The fact is, we didn't have the information. But, the actions that were taken were as prompt as necessary and right on. We need to thank the experts who bent over backwards to collect information and develop plans. We need to thank President Trump for gathering the resources needed and not only moving the protection plans forward but just as importantly keeping our economy afloat.Damn the Dems who instead obstruct viable, positive plans to move the economy ahead. Particularly Small Businesses!!! Isn't it time to get these not only clueless but obstructionists out of Congress! They have been endangering America since Trump's inauguration.

I wasn't planning on a political rant, but let's win the this war before starting another! Stay safe people. Follow the precautions passed along by Trump;s experts, NOT the other hateful politicians.

939. Puzzled re Contempt of Senate Proceedings

I'm puzzled why Senators can openly lie on the Senate floor or before any Senate managed function without some kind of penalty. Isn't this Contempt = willful disobedience to or open disrespect for the rules or orders of a court (contempt of court) or legislative body. They take an oath to  truthful and to support the Constitution don't they? Yet Independent organizations, such as Politico, call their lies and nothing is ever done to correct them. So, as we have seen with the Impeachment Trials and almost all Dem initiated witch hunts, the Dem continue to lie to Congress to make their false cases. I really think someone in the legal areas of the government, such as the Department of Justice or the Supreme Court Court member selected to oversee the Impeachment trial, should prosecute these liars. It's challenging enough to understand everything being said let alone extracting facts. We the People know the facts re the Impeachment. Some just don't care about the lies and just want to proceed removing our President based on their inability to get over 2016 and the fact that the Dem Party is imploding each time they bring up these false accusations. I'm not a Dem, but it would be a shame if they destroy the Separation of Powers and continue to close their eyes to reality and facts. I'm tired of results BY PARTY LINE! Can't individual members think for themselves? I value the multiple-party system to balance the views of all America. But, I am getting real tired of the Dems misleading their contingency and sucking up the youngster "adults" who in the most part are clueless on most of the facts and simply don't care -- they just want to rebel as teenagers always do! Where are the parents who allow their children to be brought up that way? Are they also so indoctrinated with wrongdoing and lack of common sense also. I wish I could say let America be Socialist to tech them a lesson that that are too ignorant to learn by past attempts and present examples. Let's let everybody live for FREE (except, you and I who have to pay the taxes for the youngsters until they grow up and get to really suffer financial chaos as an adult). 

Thanks Dems for SEPARATING this Great Country. I can even suspect that the youngsters and a lot of people believe the Democratic Party stands for Democracy and any other party does not. I doubt they know that America is a Republic and our Republic and Democracy is the set of policies defined by the Constitution and Bill of Rights that rule America despite the political party name. The exception is Bernie Sanders and his followers who are out to upset Democracy and Capitalism with idiotic dreams that youngsters BELIEVE! I sometimes wonder whether every voter should pass a course on Democracy, Capitalism, and what a Republic is BEFORE they can vote! Just can't believe We the People are sitting here without correcting the inevitable catastrophes in the future. 

I guess I got off the topic a little. But the match on the gasoline spread by the Dems these last 3+ years has already been lit.

921. Impeachment Inquiry Proceedings

Time to chime in.Its no wonder why this country is going to pot (not the weed, but, maybe so). Witch hunt after witch hunt over a conversation between world leaders. Do the Dims think this strengthens this country? Particularly the way they orchestrated this sham. First collect as much dirt, factual or not, get the great (H-Ha) Media to excite the people, juice up their part of sheep to baa in unison, and then continue their lying.

Can you believe yesterday at the proceedings Adam Shiff said even he did not know the identity of the whistleblower! Well then, who does? How did he learn enough "details" to light the fire? Why didn't the Republicans ask this?  Why didn't they ask how he was informed -- who, letter, email, etc. -- and pursue getting that person subpoenaed or an physical documents read in? It is We the People's right to ensure the Constitution is followed to ensure the accused lawyers can properly question the credibility and motives of the accuser. This can be done partially without knowing the identity. How can Adam Shiff determine sufficient credibility to initiate this witch hunt. Doe being a whistleblower mean ANYONE can write an anonymous letter about anybody and be ensured such a sham is initiated? You talk about corruption! This is treason for organizing a coup to attack the highest office in America without any proof. His only proof is the dirt he stirs up and the mixing or statements the way that benefits the Dims.

I repeat:
1. Who is the whistleblower?
2. Doe Shiff or doesn't Shiff know who he is?
3. Did Shiff converse with the actual whistlebower?
4. If not, who did and who is feeding the crap to him and why isn't he subpoenaed?
5. Are there any physical documents of the claim? Why were't they entered and available to the public?

I certainly don't know the circumstances at the moment of the call to the Ukraine President. Trump claims there was a previous call and that transcript will be made public which has bearing on his comments to the Ukraine President on the call in question. I can see where, in the timeline, funds for aide was held up BEFORE the call for reasons of suspected corruption. Do the Dims expect to get the answer to that question and freezing of funds before the call? Like Congress acts so fast! The House is such pathetically run government entity!

So the previous paragraph address the holding of funds and the expected duration of that hold to investigate corruption and more particularly the credibility of the new Ukraine President. Sounds logical to me! Sounds CORRECT to me!

If the suspected corruption (fact for many years) persists and did persist in 2018 too (fact), and the company where Hunter Biden was "specially" placed on its boar was being investigated for corruption (fact), and Hunter obliged during the rein of V.P. Biden who should have been obligated to performing independently from him, and the Ukraine investigation was TOLD to stop strangely just when the Biden's were involved at the same time in the Ukraine, wasn't it appropriate to ask the Ukraine President to investigate? Maybe Trump shouldn't have used the name "Biden" and should have instead tip-toed around using the name and explained the possible corruption by sticking only to the investigated company's name, but Trump at the spur of the moment wanted to explain the time frame of interest and did mention the name. Maybe a BAD for him because of that. BUT, that is NOT a reason for Shiff and cronies to shout IMPEACHMENT! How childless, or should I say CORRUPT!

We the People ARE smarter! It's again time for the ignorant to educate themselves GOOD for the country, OUR AMERICA, and what and who is out to DESTROY it. I am so tired of the two party system. I am so tired of the kids under 21 who THINK they are grown up, but continue to show their ignorance in living in an adult world. Socialism comes to mind -- Socialism, a word they can't even define!). I'm tired of the SHEEP Herds where nobody thinks himself or herself any more because it is easier to just follow someone else. I could write a large book with the nonsense We the People have to wade through because of the sheep! We need independent thinkers to support OUR needs and desires. We DON"T have it in Congress. So sad. America needs to wake up! We have a leader now that has PROVED he can do what the people want, except for the ignorant Dim-Sheep. Support the Office of the Presidency and help it grow America and more importantly shape America into a country of educated, logical, common sense people. I wish I had the endurance to write a book and do a purge of the "indoctrinators" replacing them with "educators". Do realize the path America is on? Sure we can continue to only grow the economy, solve immigration to follow the law, improve the foreign relations (trade, funding, military support, etc.), cut out unnecessary costs (decrease regulations, taxes, etc.) and everything this sitting president is doing for years now with PROVEN success. But, we still have the clueless. Its like allowing the prisoners bidding to run the jail! Some one must be in control who won't let that happen. I thank President Trump for stepping up to the plate and the voters for signing the contract. Let's do it again and add OVERALL reform of things discussed above begin. Unless I see firm plans to continue the positive programs Trump has initiated and performed AND to address the Overall reform above, my vote is already cast. Since I am an independent, and that is NOT a political party Independent, my vote is cast.

I couldn't resit this video Big Don sent to me this afternoon by a friend.

917. The Media Sucks ... so do the groups controlling it

Catchy title, but true. If you don't realize this, go to my post in category MEDIA and you'll see posts back to 2012 re FAKE news and misleading We the People. You'll also see their crusade with the liberals to demoralize the conservatives and particularly Trump even when he just became a candidate for Presidency. I was going to stay out of politics and the Media, but how can you escape the nonsense going on these days? Trump is right that the Dems have been out to get him and have a full plan to do so starting BEFORE he became president. It took no more than an hour after he won the election to show their lunacy, childishness,  and ignorance by actually beginning the nonsense and continue it up to this moment.

Like the Trump-Russian collaboration, which was thrown back in their face, the Impeachment Inquiry (ha-ha) they started in their clubhouse of dimwits compares to a spoiled child who'll cry just to get attention. But in this case, it is far worse. The lying and evilness is killing this country. Major divisions are taking place between the educated free minded, common sense people and the bully liberals who would attack their own mothers if they rode the other train. The brats include the youngsters who can't even define Socialism, yet want to support the "let mommy take care of us" movement -- disgusting. WHO educates these kids other than the institutions who INDOCTRINATE them in anti-American, anti-capitalistic thoughts? Parents? Or are they too busy too to take the time to digest facts versus the lies the Media spits out? Every time I call for service, technical or not, I am reminded that we no longer have thinkers, but indoctrinated followers. When is the last time you spoke to someone who had to follow a script!

Now you have idiots who want to allow 16 year-old kids age 16 to vote! OBlunder passed a health law forcing insurance companies to carry children on their policies until they were 26.  Remember? They were cited as too young to act on their own beyond the age they could enlist in the military (the responsible ones were there)! I can't imagine, based on what I was like at 16, ever having the knowledge and experience to vote for the President of the United States. I would venture to say I was in the 99th percentile of those 16 year-old teens who had NO interest in politics and, instead, focused on sports, hanging out, and the opposite sex. Please tell me I am wrong with an honest face!

How can one not understand that Health Care for all is NOT FREE? It would be exponentially worse than Medicare alone and that is NOT FREE now youngsters. I and my wife pay an average $300+/month and we are savvy insurance shoppers! You probably aren't going to find someone else paying out much less, except of course the ones lying to geton Welfare. Did you know Medicare ONLY pays 80%? Did you know ALL Medicare recipients must pay for it via Part B? Did you know if you want 100% coverage you have to stay healthy and fall within the added insurance you can get for the missing 20% through Supplemental Insurance that you pay for? Did you know that even the supplemental insurance has restriction for total out-of-pocket expenses? Do you know you are FORCED to buy Prescription Drug insurance? Fortunately, we have the absolutely lowest out-of-pocket plan. Most people, my wife's 92-year old mother spend HUNDREDS more per month. Gee, if we were her age we could easily be paying $500-600 per month instead of $300! Wow, that's an entire pay check kiddos! Dream on re FREE Health Care for ALL.

Do you realize how much more the government would need to provide to run an equal system like Medicate with 3x more individuals? It isn't simple linear math (if you know what that means). And, did you know that for the last several years doctors have been dropping out of taking on more Medicate patients because they can't afford (both financially and time) to take more? Imagine 3x more individuals going to a bank to withdraw money. The lines would be staggeringly longer, or, the bank would have to hire an inordinate number of tellers to handle every body. Tellers are not Doctors who spend 8-10 year of education and practice before hanging the certified sign out! Banks can't even afford to do it! Why? Physically their isn't enough space (like a doctor's visiting room) without having to spend capital to make a bigger bank. Hmmm, who would they charge for this cost. Let me think. Well me, and you, via fees and charges. Then how long would it take of the pain and frustration of standing in waiting queues? Think about whether an existing doctor would even consider building a bigger facility OR simply be satisfied with clients he has which already provide him/her a comfortable life. Then consider the additional number of doctors needed to support 3x the volume of patients. Let's increase that to 6x the number of visits since there will most likely be those who will take advantage of "free (ha-ha)" care and go as soon as they hiccup. Simple queuing theory (look it up kiddos) clearly rules out the mass migration to FREE Health Care. We have already gone from scheduling an appointment just a week out to now the next available time being 3 weeks out. Imagine every person in America with a cough scheduling an appointment. What will that mean for those with serious ailments? Never see a functioning system that comes close to the way things are today.

Okay. I'm done ranting. Glad to get some of the frustration re the Media and their crony leaders and political pundits who all are in the business of destroying America in the air. Too bad, few will have the ambition to take this at heart and will continue only reading the headlines and lies directed at them to get them to board the cattle cars going to the slaughter house. My wife and I are beyond the influence of the bad apples even it they take over. However, we are dedicated to grow America and believe in the Constitution and laws and will fight and support them. If only their be the passing of some test to rule out the ignorant and prevent them from voting in someone who wants to hand America over to someone else. Thank you Mr. Trump!

886. America's Immigration Part II

How do you wrap your hands around an octopus without it wrapping its 8 tentacles around your neck? Do we stand any hope in getting Congress to even begin reform of immigration laws, law enforcement, and cleanup?

Here’s an idea for how to proceed:

1. Welfare is broken as we know. But it goes far beyond immigration issues. It cannot be ignored and committee discussions should begin now to address overall reform to garner in the total abuse of the system. Let’s make this discussion quasi-independent of immigration, meaning let a different committee tackle its connection to immigration while this committee addresses overall reforms. What to address by this committee? How about the rampart cheating of the system by those too lazy to work and to increase America’s productivity and prosperity? I know I get tired of watching the court TV shows and continuously seeing the so-called disabled fight over the other side collecting Welfare checks when they shouldn’t or living in high rentals supported by rent subsidies. These are my main beefs, but food stamps to everyone to buy crap food or barter with for other purposes, e.g., drugs and cigarettes are also on top of list. I want to discuss these, but not right now. Check in later for future posts under “Welfare System.”
2. So, first thing out of the box re immigration must be things to eliminate the incorrect incentives luring the abundance of mass attempts to get over our border. I believe that if we can eliminate those incentives, less people will even try to come across. I can accept they all want freedom and liberty, but those should come with a price like we American citizens all pay – taxes, work (see 1 for overall Welfare reform too), service (military, civic responsibilities). Strict welfare handouts need to be employed and any births to illegals cannot be recognized and awarded with automatic citizenship! See “Step 1” below *.
3. At the same time, STOP the nonsense related to asylum claims. Go with Senator Lindsay’s proposal and make it a requirement that ALL amnesty requests be forwarded from an American Embassy in the country or region for the country of the individual seeking asylum. Should we not already know which countries and which areas of countries qualify? Can we not get details far in advance of individuals seeking asylum via Embassy request to allow us to investigate the individual(s)? That is, can we not make the process ORDERLY instead of a cattle jam at our border that contains all kinds of border seekers? See “Step 2” below *.
4. What about those who sneak across the border? That’s where the “wall”, not specifically a physical term, but a term that refers to any technique or method to stop the traffic of illegals AND contraband (drugs, counterfeit products, terrorism, etc.). Let’s call number 3 above the Legal Immigration Process and this one the Illegal Immigration Process. This process is obvious already started and going on for decades, but is NOT effective, nor efficient! A physical wall as President Trump barks out is only one remedy to stop Illegal Immigration in areas that are remote. This minimize reduce resources needed for those stretches of the southern border. Walls already exist and have already reduced attempts, so, why not complete the job for all remote areas? Other surveillance methods such as drones, sensors, etc. are already in use, not only for southern border, but all borders. I am sure these need to be enhanced and would focus on the areas most attacked by the traffickers of people and contraband. Detecting is one part, controlling is another that requires manpower or another means. See “Step 3” below *.
5. The above steps are direct controls of immigration. Now, who would we allow to cross our borders to seek residence, or simply to work? I see value of both the very skilled individual who immediately contributes highly to the growth of America, and then the less skilled individual who is hard working; both committed to America’s laws and doctrines. What is the correct proportion? The Labor Department should be able to tell us this. But, of course, who has the correct number for the masses of Illegals already employed illegally today? This must be resolved. Maybe the proposed Census question re citizenship was an attempt to learn this, but I say that won’t. More raids on companies? More detective work on social security numbers of dead people being reused? More pressure in the agricultural and construction businesses that hire these illegals? ALL required. I can’t believe our government can’t keep track of our deceased social security numbers and put a stop to this. Maybe its time to redo the identification of individuals completely with the creation and assignment of new identification numbers. Maybe even with fingerprint or DNA signatures. See “Step 4” below for discussion *.

* Steps 1-4 will be in separate posts later

883. America's Immigration Part 1

America’s Immigration Part 1:

Let’s begin with a planning session to outline the broken immigration system and controls. I will proceed with a group of one (me) and look at how I perceive the planning for changes to immigration should be defined and handled. Future post will be needed to complete my documentation.

All planning begins with a mission statement to clearly inform everybody of the ideal systems required. Then, goals are defined to support the mission and provide targets for which to aim. Issues will first have to be detailed before one – two year objectives can be defined. Then it will be Congress’ job to assign completion dates and assign a leader (ONE) to champion each objective. It should be Congress’ responsibility to generate the detailed tasks and priorities to accomplish each objective. This will never happen, so I’ll do this the best I can to provide a blueprint and roadmap to follow. Why I am wasting my time is because I CARE! If I could lead the planning session for Congress I can assure you, that with the proper support of Congressional leaders an entire 5-10 year plan could be laid out with 1-2 short-term action plans. Comments always appreciated. This is YOUR country too!

Mission: America will provide an immigration policy that is unequaled in the world. It will continuously offer its resources and liberties to anybody accepting its laws and principles as defined in the U.S. Constitution. The policy needs to be open-ended and flexible; yet restrictive to the amount of resources it takes to effectively and efficiently manage the program so that it is not over-burdened to the degree of lowering effectiveness or causing disruption to other American policies. The immigrants must show loyalty and stride towards citizenship and commit to America’s laws and principles.

Goals: Goals are merely targets that may or may not ever be met entirely, only something to aim at. The goals should be:

(1)   America desires the best in professional professions who will continue to apply their expertise using America’s resources and liberties to improve mankind. These are the individuals who contribute the most to America itself; their achievements may directly grow America’s economy and/or attract other specialists to come to our shores.

(2)   America should also allow dedicated, loyal individuals who believe in American democracy, doctrines, and law regardless of profession. We are always in need of workers across the labor forces that are willing to work hard and loyal.

(3)   America should be visual of hardships and dangers in other countries from which its citizens take flight to survive in peace and liberty. It is our duty to reach out to the ones in most dire situations, but without overburdening our resources. This becomes an impossible task since America cannot resolve all worldwide issues for everybody.

Objectives: Objectives with specific measureable progress points and completion dates. These are continuously created and maintained to move us toward out goals and dependent on present and future conditions and expectations. Issues are a main driver of objectives and must continuously be defined and examined. 

2019 Issues:

(1)   Decades of government’s ineffectiveness in exercising America’s laws allowed millions of immigrants that do not meet the requirements of loyalty and abeyance of laws. Thus, millions of immigrants are deemed Illegals because they live here without declaring their loyalty to America and have hidden from officials and taken new identities in order to take advantage of the richness of America’s generous programs of welfare or other, thus ignoring laws. In my opinion, government created this mess and gathering them up now because of the government’s negligence is not entirely correct. Another solution needs to be defined.

(2)   Millions more try to come into America despite the lack of resources to process them or support them. The use of the term amnesty is being used fraudully in so many cases it invalidates and injures those who are really in danger. Should not the country from which they emigrate be better to assess amnesty requirements? I know Senator Lindsay has some proposal to stop all amnesty at the border and make it mandatory for an immigrant to go to it’s home co9untry’s consulate to request amnesty in America.

(3)   America can not absorb an overburdening number of individuals seeking America’s shores. People resources are not available to process or support them. Finances are not available when we can’t even manage the poverty and citizens we have.

(4)   Global terror continues to reside in the world and America is a target. Thus, America must be visual and smart about who it allows to cross its borders, as well as, all shipments and products entering America. The escalating costs of controlling our borders are out-of-hand, both financially and managerially.

(5)   The proportions of individuals seeking America have become highly skewed toward the unskilled immigrant versus the skilled professionals we need. Plus, the issue is becoming worse. America needs to refocus on its goals to control these delicate proportions.

(6)   America’s Welfare systems are broken. Not only for supporting the Illegals and seeking immigrants, but in general America’s own citizens too. No country can provide ample resources for an infinite number of beggars, unwilling to work for their country and even the betterment of their own families. Unless America can squash their own beggars, no hope is available for any immigrants, particularly more beggars.

America’s Immigration Part 2 (future post) will address the proposed objectives for 1-2 year ending July 2021. Unfortunately, I expect little because Congress is totally ineffective and cannot possibly get it’s hands around all the issues and programs broken that need to be fixed or to see the forest from the tree blocking their sight.

809. Sam says JUMP (the Market)

Sam isn't Simon, but when she says jump you might consider it. It's time for another pop up in the DJIA. Although the world is transitioning from mid- to late-business cycle phase where money tightens again, the US is on the border (no pun intended) and profits still seem positive. Cycle dynamics at this point of the cycle where Fed rates are still in neutral territory until next hike suggest time to buy chemicals & paper stocks (so claims Cramer in his book). and begin to shave medical and food stocks. These are long-term suggestions and it may just be these that pop toward their ending cycle highs if you play with the gamblers short-term. Transgressing through the business cycle has been a slow, slow process this time. We've seen the "ease" beginning in the Obama period when the Fed couldn't stop printing dollars. Now Trumps easing via tax cuts extended that period a few years. Get ready for the banks to make their last move up also. By "move" I am talking months to a year in the slowing moving cycle moves. However, if you are like me, you ride the diversified "mutual fund" you created and be an Alfred E. Newman ("What, me worry?", NO). So, there you go. Be a short-termer and get excited like popcorn kernals in a hot popping pot, or a long-termer and stay chilled realizing that that those currently lagging stocks from the past decade will now keep you afloat. In short (again a pun), Sam expects techs to remain strong and financials to feed the fire (actually everything looks promising real short-term); but, come fall (another pun?), be ready for the consequences when the cycle starts giving you a preview of what it has in mind when  "put-your're-one-foot-in" becomes a reality and the cycle gongs go off. Sam doesn't expect chaos -- except the gambler-marketeers will make it so over-selling the market by leaps and bounds. Play it, or absorb it. You're choice. My goals remain "what will I leave behind at 99" -- that's a catchy phrase. And morbid.  Yet, being a senior is making me lean (yet another put) towards more investing GRADUALLY and SLOWLY in more fixed income choices -- why give up the much higher returns long-term of other stocks now unless you need spare "gold" to set aside for the last rainy days of your "golden" years (right!).

"Don't worry be Happy" Bob Marley would sing -- now that's better.

807. Enjoying the Market-Coaster?

Sam, my long deceased market guru lab, is enjoying the comedy here on earth and how completely insane we moral react to news. Long-term views are out and News and Fear governs Wall Street, always with overreaction both ways. For instance, Trade Wars on, trade wars off, Kim going to meet with us, Kim not going to meet, etc. What happened to the profits and economy looks splendid and futures should be bright? Gone, thanks to the gamblers trying to outsmart each other to gain footing short-term. It has become a game interrupting the plans of to we long-term investors. So, what do we do? Option one is play the game and gamble along; option two just close you eyes and let the gamblers trip over each other and focus on long-term.

I like both options. I, with my dog's guidance, know where I need to be long-term and how to add to my diversified account. actually, I very seldom look at anything new and just add to existing investments. I do occasionally readjust positions due to industry moves within the economy cycles. But, this is simply moving money from one place to another. Thus, my long-term has been proved and verified valid during the last 20-25 years.

Gamble? I guess you call it that any time you buy/sell anything. When? How much? I monitor the DJIA and NASDAQ and watch the relative changes (Williams % R indicator on charts), as well as look for the crosses of short-term moving and long-term moving averages. These give me some insight on expected up/down and when to buy/sell. In today's market, I love the overreactions the gamblers present. I do NOT put myself in the gambler-definition which I define as horse track betting mentality and large HOPEFUL wishes employed rather than sane probablilities -- always looking for the big score. Seldom do you hear about the big loss from these players. My strategy is to buy when the %William R CURVE just begins to head back up (never on way down), above the 80% heading to 0% (UP curve) AND the short-term moving average heading to cross over the long-term average in an upward direction. That;'s when to buy. The opposite is when %WilliamR goes below 20% and returns back down (the curve that is) beyond towards 100% AND the short-term average crosses the long-term average in a downward direction. This is the general concept and buy/sell scheme that has worked for me for decades.

As I just said, the overreactions due to the gamblers driving things up (can't miss out) or down (gonna lose everything) presents changes to the %Williams R quite often. Use that to an advantage. I seldom sell more than once or twice a year and only to rebalance portfolios. So, pocket change from dividends, called in preferreds/bonds, or sells to lighten up an an industry (Cramer has a decent book re the economic life cycle and industries that benefit or should be avoided and when -- also Fidelity has an excellent article just on this).

But bottom line, stick to those investments you chose wisely that have performed for decades. Trade Wars - short term actions. You may end up paying more for something due to them, but return is the profitability of America's companies allowing for income increases, dividend increase, etc. Either they will balance out, or I would venture to say work out more benefit than not long-term. And, does Kim bother me? No, SSDD as Stephen King would say. We have the advantage and can reach out to help troubled countries like his for the world's benefit. His games will continue! They have little influence except to cause overreaction by the people you live on improbable FEARs. Take advantage of the market drops and buy. Maybe in 2-3 years something will be accomplished in the world of Kim and equitable trade. Don't expect it NOW! Continue plopping what you can into investments that get you more than -1% after taxes! I'm content with just 7-8%/yr (more than 2-3% above inflation). 

794. What about gun controls? Update.

Do we need gun controls? Do we need better protection from lunatics? How can anyone answer "No" after the Las Vegas and Florida shootings on top of the ones from the later past? But, remember, there are scores of others not considered mass shootings that result in death, and they shouldn't be neglected any more than the the ones the mass media swarm on.

I've been hearing about the following suggested controls so far: (1) Arming teachers, (2) Banning Bump Stocks, (3) Banning Assault Weapons, (4) Limiting high capacity magazines, (5) Raising age to buy a gun, (6) Cutting ties with NRA. Will these get the guns out of the hands of those who are lunatics and are totally obsessed with killing masses or even one person? 

In my opinion, the lunatics who want to kill are so obsessed and angry that they will find a way. If not by gun, maybe by knife as we have seen elsewhere in the world, or explosives. They will continue to purchase or steal the supplies and equipment they need to do their deed, regardless of the obstacles and restrictions. We are as likely to stop these people as we are drugs. I think we can agree that we have failed there. Here's a suggestion that law enforcement can try, but even it will require sophisticated management and clever integration of data. No easy task: Create one huge database cross referencing all sales and/or sources of gun, weapons, materials and purchaser (legal) or acquirer (illegal).

One would think ATF already has this start for illegally acquired guns, manufacturers of materials, suppliers, criminals. I would hope they have this information at the minimum. However, the design of the all encompassing "Lunatics Will Kill " database (LWKD)needs far more.

For example, an objective might be to catalog all citizens who have obtained more 1 or more assault weapons (need to describe them all) and/or bump style stocks or other mechanisms that convert a gun to an automatic. Registration of these is mandatory and law enforcement will be instructed to eliminate any quantities of the existing population of destructive weapons in the database deemed excessive. There is absolutely no reason for a normal citizen in America to own automatic weapons. Certainly hunting is NOT a reason. Hunting is a sport, not a slaughter. I enjoyed grouse hunting despite missing many, many birds. They won. So what. However, shooting Bambi who laid down behind the shrubs to hide was my last straw!

If we want to ban automatic weapons of all type, assault or equipment to convert them, then we need to locate them all. It should be mandatory that all suppliers of these, dealers or all individuals including those selling at gun shows or personally, check before sale and then register the sale in the LWKD. Say our limit is 1 of these. Then a second sale should not be made to any person already in the database or anyone affiliated in any way to the an individual already owning one. Tough task. This would require cross connections be defined by sophisticated algorithms to create the connections. For example, the simplest case is within the same family. Or could it be same address? Or could it be same business? Or same gang? The task is monumental. How can we tie together connections when fake IDs could always be the workaround to let the lunatics continue their deeds? Makes this approach seem impossible too! Well, first we use fingerprints instead of names. That would help some until the really corrupt ones find a way around that. 

The first objective of a LWKD can only be to provide a deterrent for the lunatics buying or supplying. All violating the registration and supply of weapons or materials need to be arrested and given very stiff penalties. I would imagine a  project to create such a database and process, including the enforcement would take 3-5 years to complete. Sorry if there isn't an instant solution, but this is a permanent long-term solution to protect those beyond its effective management completion data. But, we can't kick the can down the road and NOT begin something now that can stop the can from moving forward at some time! 

All proposals I have heard so far are short-term that, I am sorry to say, will not curtail the violence we are seeing. There are too many corrupt elements and people, sane or mentally disturbed. What is the comprehensive solution that will help us get the corruptness off the streets or at least quickly identify potential nightmares before they happen?

For example, Arming Teachers. Does putting a sign in front of you house declaring a security system deter criminals even though you have no system? Probably most of them. Would putting a sign at school entrances declaring that personnel within a school are armed and trained deter lunatics? Only if the lunatic plans to live. How many of these have we seen? Florida was an exception, and even then I question whether he cared about his life when he entered the school. So those arguing that alerting lunatics that they could be killed is crazy in itself. However, does this mean that more guns and trained people to use them should be in schools? Yes. However, how fast could they react even if armed? Would they carry them around where they could be hit over the head and gun taken from them to use in killings? Would the guns be locked up requiring the trained personnel to spend minutes to get to them only after the carnage is already done? How many school personnel would really commit to putting their life in danger to combat a lunatic with an automatic weapon when they have a pea shooter? Think about it.

I'll address some other short term solutions and knock-offs in later posts. I may still not be finished with the teacher one either. This post is simply an introduction to short-term vs. comprehensive long-term solution.

Update 3/21/18:

Today they nabbed and killed the serial Austin bomber. Kudos to the agencies in Austin for getting this nut off the planet! So, why are guns such an issue when someone can kill others with common household ingredients and a little knowledge that is provided in detail on the Internet? Should we be concerned with all this bomb-building knowledge on the Internet? I would venture that we need to get control of this even before guns! Accompanying this type of knowledge (and blueprint for killers) is of course the sale of guns legally AND glowingly illegally via the Internet. Why do we even have a Black Web! Don't we need some OFF to spray the spiders out there and a match to burn that web? What is the purpose of it other than mischief! I'll be long in my grave before the Millennials wake up to the menaces on the Internet and how they must be controlled instead of embracing them as neat , different, rad, etc. Wake up call!!!

Now, back to teachers. Instead of rereading my notes, I'll state here and now -- BAD idea! I'd much rather have a human like the one in Maryland High School yesterday (I believe) who reacted in a minute to get a shot at that nut and take him out! Heck, a teacher would still be trying to get his/her weapon from wherever it was stored SAFELY. That, plus the 3 incidents already with teachers shooting off guns in a classroom put this on my not-to-do list. I'll still go with the database to manage the whole gun, bomb, bomb-making ingredients, etc. system needed for the future. WHEN are we going to start! Again, I don't expect to see even a start of anything comprehensible like this in my life time. I do believe I have concluded on my long-term solution.

So, how about short-term, like NOW:
1. Background checks - only going to annoy the honest non-killers. Internet sales, gun shows, individuals, Black web, etc. will always be there to supply guns, ammo, and modifications to auto-weapons. Someone needs to gain access to distributions initiated by Internet actions. You know how some stores ask for ID and age before selling some products (Walmart, etc.). Well, why not REQUIRE all Internet distributors to comply with a list of possibly dangerous products too? Just asking for ID won't do it! We need identifying equipment, such as fingerprint, eye, camera access, etc. to order these products AND we need them to automatically update a government database. This isn't the comprehensible one I talked about, but simply a LOG until we get that database. All background checks should also be collected and standardized (government) so we have a log and include the biological identification elements.
2. Schools? How about churches too? How about movie theaters? How about Las Vegas open areas? Come on folks, let's not get sentimental and focus on just the kids at school.The same numbers of incidents can happen ANYWHERE. The is NO way to prevent nuts from hitting soft-targets. We can continue to protect as much as we can high-exposure venues and areas, such as a Super Bowl, large concert, etc. But, the only workable solution is to get the weapons out to people's hands. Make it more than tough for products like auto-weapons and bomb-making materials. I feel real bad that I can't come up with something that will work and reduce these incidents. Armed teachers will not prevent anything. Notice that shooters are usually PAST students. They would already know the details of who and where the additional "guards" are. I would then expect they, like ISIS for example, to still do there mischief but avoid what they have already discovered. SO, what am I saying? Stop throwing lots of money at solutions that won't work! Spend a little to randomly have armed guards show their presence. The key work, is random patrols and activities. Never the same routine, never the same number of people, never the same days and hours, etc. So, forget the full-time guards escalation that someone can learn and avoid. Use a minimal number more. Maybe increase the number for an entire area, not a school and rotate the guards randomly across the schools, events, etc. to a degree that anyone seeking harm cannot know if its safe or not to show up at any time! How about something like this for short-term?
3. BAN auto weapons: I could go for that. WHY does anybody need a weapon like that? I much rather have every neighbor with a rife/gun and a neighbor watch network than just me and an auto-weapon. I'm just going to have to depend on the government agencies and military units to protect me from foreign attacks. I, myself, can NOT expect to survive any other way! Ban also any modifications to make a gun automatic. Ban? STOP the manufacturers from making them! We need Crack-Down! Certainly we should know WHO the manufacturers are already. CLOSE them down! Don't have to ban and control them if they are not made and/or distributed. Let's put some hurt to them before they become a drug-dealer size operation!
4. Do you think even age 21 is high enough for the nuts? Why annoy the honest hunters? Hunting equipment needs to be available to all ages. Yes, maybe guns need to be supplied by the parents though. But, now we have the situation like we've seen where teen-killer used daddy's gun! And we have incidents where small kiddos got hold of daddy's gun and shot someone. Can't stop everything. How do we make parents more responsible? Limit them? Make them lock up guns? Must-have gun lockable gun-cabinets? Trigger locks? I vote to low-cost solution of trigger locks for ALL guns. Never sold without a trigger lock! But, once again, every player selling MUST comply with restriction and sale! So, part of log and control in #1 above is the requirement to have a trigger lock accompany it. Also, all owners of existing guns must purchase a lock and log to gun and lock serial numbers (1 lock serial number per assigned gun). I would think ANY parent with children would want this. Why risk not having a lock? Reminds me of a Dr. Phil episode yesterday where a parent has a destructive and respectfulness teen but still decides to leave on a vacation twice a year without the child INSTRUCTING him to not have a party. Right! You can almost not expect to have a trustful child go without a party. Only difference will be that of chaos. So, lock up those guns.
5. Cutting ties with NRA? Surely not. However, the NRA needs to step up and provide some solutions! How about those in this post? Stop lobbying and put some money into solutions that you are capable of performing and distributing. The money you save, plus government money to implement solutions, plus benefit to everyone is a reward NRA should seek hotly! SO, go to it NRA. Stop fighting the Dems over amendment rights  and show to world some solutions that would boost your importance and membership!

Once again, I need a break. Go ahead and comment about what has been written so far. This is important to each one of us. Think and respond please.