Please. Understand how models are created and the limits of them before reacting to all the hoopla by the media who DON'T understand them. Accurate models projecting deaths can't possibly be developers. Why? There isn't enough data about this virus to base them on and and same goes for data with respect to behavior since recognized.
Anybody can develop a forecasting model. Let's use a financial example. Suppose someone assumes the stock market moves according to a linear line upward at 12% on the average. Since there already exists plenty of historical data, I could use history to determine if my forecast projects were close to the linear line model hypothesized. What will be the results? No way Jose. So, someone else assumes the projection curve is exponential Again, wrong. Without going into what projection is correct, I am simply clarifying that whatever the projection curve you assume, it CAN be checked and refined based on historical data. Well, to a degree that is. There sill still be outliers (differences from the norm) due to specific events that need to be explained. For example, why was the stock market growing at 10% compound growth before 2000 and now only 6.5% today. It was something like that, but I am not stating that it was those percentages or the turning year was 2000. I am stating that events happen that change a long-term model and again need to be factored in when designing a model.
Now COVID-19. We have no history. People first made assumptions that it was like the influenza. In what respects? Anything that could accurately project Covid-19? Nope. But the media picked up on whoever touted such a model to project spread rate and geography. They were wrong! The problem of the model being wrong is not the point. Those knowing it couldn't possibly be accurate had to have something to base decisions on and a base model to change as more facts became known. The problem became the media jumping on it like it was the Holy Grail for predicting death and demise, then exciting or incorrectly lulling the masses to no be concerned. Statistics based on incredible facts are useless and can be made dangerous by clueless media.
As we saw more data become available, more refined models were developed for projections of spread, rate of spread, deaths, etc. Still not enough data and facts are known to ensure an accurate model. But today the total deths were projected to be lower than the previous model. What changed in the model? We will never know. But the problem becomes the Dems will now collect into there ball of hate an accuse Trump for overstating the expected deaths a few weeks back when the model had far less data to work with and the experts were only trying their best to project SOMETHING worse case. So, the political pot will be stirred again and the Dems will blindly want to spend taxpayer money on another witch hunt instead of realizing what a model is OR getting their own experts to develop a model. Watch the senseless reactions to the latest leftest media new headings! That's my prediction for next week.
But, let's be practical and understand models and the experts developing them. Not Trump! We still have no clue why certain states have high rates of infection and death. We still have no real clue whether the mid-west states will follow suit with the NE states. Do realize that the worse was in NY and NJ and then later Michigan and Chigo area. Plus Kentucky and Louisiana. Why? There are hundreds of variables that need to be analyzed to determine why? IF someone can pinpoint the contributing variables then it might be possible to project impact on the mid-west. Until then, we run with inaccuracy and each of us lives with or without hope.
Had we accurate data out of China in January already, a lot of the actions taken might have had even more of a jump start. The fact is, we didn't have the information. But, the actions that were taken were as prompt as necessary and right on. We need to thank the experts who bent over backwards to collect information and develop plans. We need to thank President Trump for gathering the resources needed and not only moving the protection plans forward but just as importantly keeping our economy afloat.Damn the Dems who instead obstruct viable, positive plans to move the economy ahead. Particularly Small Businesses!!! Isn't it time to get these not only clueless but obstructionists out of Congress! They have been endangering America since Trump's inauguration.
I wasn't planning on a political rant, but let's win the this war before starting another! Stay safe people. Follow the precautions passed along by Trump;s experts, NOT the other hateful politicians.
No comments:
Post a Comment