184. Rally Upended By Depressing News

The expected rally at the end of the year, despite fairly positive news re unemployment and housing numbers, seemed to be overshadowed by the terrorism, protectionism, and foreign country abandonment of the U.S. Now you and I would realize this and the reasons why, but it continues to seem that the O making decisions wants to continue to play Chicago bully against the equals where diplomatic relationships can work, but a forgiving mommy with the terrorists and evil countries where diplomatic relationships won't work. If this isn't a conceived plan to destroy America, what is it? I would love to find something positive to say about O -- and would -- but I can't. And DO get rid of Eric Holder who has the largest skin in the game with Yemen through his legal firm connections. I smell more than one rat. Anyway, back to the market which is now near the falling point. I can't bail out in 2009, but Monday I will take a serious look.

183. Where the Rubber Meets the Road

As expected, the Chinese aren't too happy (see this article) with President O over the steel duties (see Post 179), especially after they were snookered with 35% tire duties earlier this year (also mentioned in this article). The big gotcha is not the initial steel duties but the possible follow-on duties in Spring. Will we have a Summer or a middle-of-the-year Winter? Gotta please the lobbyists -- do you remember the promise O made concerning lobbyists? Seems the unions are governing America now!

182. Let's Applaud the Losers

It was the government and Fannie Mae & Mac that got us into the financial credit crisis. Why not just keep adding to the deficit to feed the losers even more. And, let's not stop there, we still have the losing auto companies to buoy.

FNM Article
GMAC Article

Don't forget, we will need to bailout Medicare and Medicaid.
And, don't forget Social Security.
Want to bet on Health Care too?

So, whO is the lOser? Gave you a hint. The same lOser wants to clOse GitmO despite all the recent terrOrist attacks (Oh, we're nOt in a war!). And whO didn't appOint a permanent leader to TSI and a competent leader to HOmeland Security? HOpe yOu are enjOying Hawaii while the cOuntry cOntinues to sink in the s**t yOu caused! Can't 2012 get here sOOner!

My nose has wOrked Overtime this year. But even then I still have MOre COmmOn Scents and Sense.

181. The Coming Inflation

Looks like there are others who agree that inflation is in our future as reported in this article hot off the press. Some of the same points, such as deficit caused by bailouts and future government plans are stated as reasons. However, it was the Japan future plan in Post 180 that caught my eye as a big red flag of what is coming our way.

180. Even Japan's Bailing Out?

As we continue to destroy our economy with high debt and TRILLIONS of dollars more, thanks to the Health Care bill before us and more bailouts like the second $2-3Billion to GMAC, its no wonder other countries are losing confidence in America as the driver of world economy. As reported in this article, Japan, highly reliant on U.S. imports today and one of the largest Treasury holders has decided their economy cannot rely on the U.S. itself any more. Hatoyama said Japan "... would look to become less reliant on the U.S. economically and increase trade with its Asian neighbors, targeting a free trade zone in the region by 2020. Until now our connection with the U.S. has been very strong. Naturally this will continue to be the case in maintaining security. But in terms of economic growth, it is necessary to look closely at Asia as a new frontier..."

179. Protectionism Isn't Usually Good

I just got finished mentioning what Mr. Smick said about avoiding protectionism (see Post 174) and BINGO. Reported here is the U.S. meddling yet again in free trade blindly singing protectionism. Seems the U.S. Steel lobbyists didn't get their Christmas present. Well, here fellows. Your daddy Uncle Sam will impose a 10.35%-15.78% duty on Chinese steel pipes. That should help you have a Happy New Year. Now just where will China get the money they will lose? Hmmm. Impose price hikes to their steel to cover it? Increase their subsidies to cover it? How about increase everything they send us and send America into an inflation spin? Mr. Smick warned the politicians to be careful. I hope this move was carefully considered. Want to bet steel goes up?

178. I Hate Computers

Now that I have had a special keyboard to allow my paws to type fast and a mighty mouse that I can control by the movement of my eyes, I have entered the world of computer bugs. Have to thank the master for the old Windows ME laptop -- limited memory, speed, and incompatible Xp or above hardware. When you have to find the smallest browser around (K-Meleon) to get any speed, you know you are living the limitations of the old days. After stripping everything possible and utilizing the most efficient software possible, I am now faced with continuous disk problems, noises beyond fan noises, lockups, etc. No Mas! Well, will he be in for a surprise -- I ordered a new Windows 7 laptop today. Just a small one, mind you. But now maybe I can move on from the old broken Lexmark 1996 vintage printer that finally made it to the garage too -- like it will ever be used again. My new and BLUE baby should be able to print wirelessly to HIS network printer, hee-hee. Meanwhile, he's losing hope in resolving how he will ever get from XP to Windows 7 on his PC dinosaur when both the motherboard graphic chipset and the sound chips are incompatible. Woo-hoo -- I Win. Guess we just wait until his machine starts making noises like mine before he goes all out on a new one -- Mrs. gets to use baby Blue. I like Santa Season.

177. Must be Bush's Fault (Again!)

So. Last post I saluted Janet Napolitano awarding her the "DUH!" award for stupid comments. Today, I offer another nomination for the stupids -- yes, as I projected in my last post, President not-my-fault-Bush-left-me-with-it Obama. O is right that Bush did leave the White House and left him with everything -- except some common sense and a brain. Now we see as reported here, President O failed to assign a LEADER for some of the most important Homeland Security posts. DUH! Did he run out of "party" bed mates? Or, did he think National Security and people's lives were not important?

I am amazed that overnight he could address the Rev. Wright incident, but fail to ever publicly address the Flight 253 attempted BOMBING incident until several days later. I suppose that might have interrupted his vacation time. Where ARE his priorities! Where is his Common Sense? Let's attack Fox News instead of attacking the terrorists! Let's prosecute the terrorists in U.S. courts while they detonate bombs on airplanes! Wonder what word he'll use for this terrorist act -- remember how the Fort Hood Nidal Hasan killings weren't called terrorism? And we went through the phase that it wasn't a "WAR" on terrorism -- evil word. I fail to see any reason for not saying what you mean and meaning what you say; thus, I have a real problem for President Pinocchio and administration. I am actually starting to believe they say what they mean and that is to hell with this country, we'll just issue time-outs. They will heal the evil in the world, like Iran trying to smuggle raw uranium as reported here. Does anybody else out there see the failure of this administration and government? I can work my way around the financial crises, the one we had and the one down the road after the congressional clown's fill their pockets with special earmarks to guarantee their Aye-Votes for the unnecessarily expensive health care reform, but National Security exposures and incidents are beyond comprehension and logic. Is the only way for O to succeed is to actually let a major terrorist incident occur on U.S. soil and then play the resolver? Phew, my hair's standing up on my neck and jowls getting tight. Throw me a log and I'll show you how fast I can make it into measly toothpicks!

176. Boom! It worked!

Can you believe Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitno claimed the system worked because the bomb failed after detonated and the people on the plane subdued the suspect? Eleven months into the job and how many incidents have we had already involving terrorist plots on the U.S. I recall at least two failed bombings of buildings -- thank you FBI --, one "massacre" on a military base, and now this attempt on Flight 253. Come on Janet! I would think you'd be packing your things by now! You are obviously a failure. We don't need a baby sitter overlooking Homeland Security, we need a leader who is constantly and actively IMPROVING the system. If you haven't read about her spin on this incident, read [Sorry, pages removed from Internet] Do we need a politician running Homeland Security! If the Pres doesn't can her he gets another "F" from me.

175. Betting on Market to be Better Than My Bowl Picks

What do I know about football, I'm just a dog. Anyway, I'm leading the Bowl pool -- FOR LAST PLACE! I'm so clever. You see, I'll double my money for finishing last (booby prize). All planned -- yeah, right. Anyway, as I recall I'm still looking for that 10800 by year end for the DJIA. According to this article, I may have a chance. The low volatility is key, and unless Santa crashes on his way home, I expect an upside bias. Question then becomes: can the DJIA rally to 11,000 before another breather? I still have my bailing bucket in hand for after the first week in January. As expected, some good jobless numbers came out, but not the overly distorted ones I expected to carry us quickly forward until corrected. We saw housing starts increase in October because of initial tax credit deadline thus boosting the numbers abnormally -- of course November was going to disappoint. However, the tax credit was now extended to April to again make the numbers look like the housing market has turned around in a big way -- again, it will be another artificial move upward to sucker we investors into perilous waters. I would rather see an increase in mortgage down payment requirements, such as, Representative Scott Garrett's proposal here, to avoid future disasters like the 2007-2008 crisis spurred by the finance agencies when they required 0% down payment! But we all know politicians! So, keep an eye out for them relaxing requirements after the first quarter of 2010 when the tax credit no longer provides stability in housing start growth. I'll keep my nose to the ground the next two weeks and see if an Common Scents confirm or change my mind on the market direction.

174. "The World is Curved" Highlights

"The World is Curved - Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy" by David Smick provides some interesting facts and thoughts. Let me list just a few from the first half of his book re globalization:

• Always remember, lack of confidence is the major cause of market downturns
• Keep an eye on the dollars pouring into Treasuries for this suggests the market's liquidity is drying up which is usually followed by nobody trusting anybody else, the halt of lending, and higher interest rates.
  
• The 2007-2008 subprime crisis was not because the size of the subprime was unknown, but an issue of not knowing where the toxic waste (securitization) was.
• Today's world is different with workers not obediently following official rules and chasing opportunities by constantly reinventing careers. Thus, seniority is of no concern and neither are pensions forcing today's workers to self-invest when they generally lack the skills or discipline to do so. All this leads to a weak security in a fast-paced global economy.
• Globalization has been a wealth generation machine
• Beware: China is an aging society and consumption will be dampened affecting the global economy. Because of their control of population limiting parents to one child, by 2045 as many as 1 in 3 Chinese will be retired. When labor declines faster than the population, the economy will suffer. Fewer exports will not only severely harm China's economy, but drive prices and interest up in the U.S.
• Invest in Europe because their trade with the U.S. is less than 10% and therefore would seem unaffected by U.S. declines in consumption? Nope. The degrees of financial integration with the U.S. is high as evidenced by the subprime crisis.
• Whereas in the past trade drove capital flows; today, capital flows drive trade. Because of the modernization of currency and trading systems, capital moves instantaneously around the world allowing, for example, wealthy countries and their sovereign funds to snap up any resource in an unbelievably short period of time. Case in point: China is buying up commodities like tin, zinc, gold, iron ore to the quantity of one third the world's annual supplies. They tried to totally corner the iron ore market driving steel prices through the roof. Russia, Dubai, and the Saudis are also following suit.
  
• China and Japan together hold significant number of dollars, while China continuously adds Euros and gold to their reserves. Could the dollar collapse because of this? We believe they realize they would be shooting themselves in the foot to dump all their dollars. Now there's something good. However, the stockpiling of Euros is driving that currency higher. We all know by now that a strong currency hurts exports. Europe is going to have to change something soon, such as drop interest rates and flood the market with more Euros. A secondary consideration re Europe is that a country like Germany with great manufacturing capabilities and products runs with the same Euro as countries like Italy which are quite inferior to Germany's strength. So, is a "world" currency like the Euro spanning many countries a solution at all?
• The best scenario seems to be a stable dollar; don't worry too much about slight dips or strengths. This stability in all currencies is desirable.
• How to prevent a U.S. meltdown? Politicians need to avoid protectionism and anything else that would discourage foreign investments in the U.S.; foreign headquartered companies employ much of our workforce AND even greater capital produced from the products produced. In other words, don't bite the hand that feeds you.
• Why do the Chinese have so much capital to hoard the commodities and invest in foreign real estate and businesses? They SAVE. Why? They have no social security nor welfare -- they must save on their own. And, it's the Communist party that controls the financial systems down to the value of the Yuan and setting interest rates -- they do not have a modern financial system that can flow synchronously with other world powers. Even the Chinese leader has no control over the party of elites.
• Fact is their economy has been exploding. Another fact is that a lot of the hype is distorted by the undervalued Yuan and reasonable interest rates which will bite them in the end. It's the major cities, particularly the coastal cities, that have been given the advantage of modernization. However, they cannot afford to let everybody move into the cities and have controls to keep them out. One strategy is to put most of the males in the military, not to defend against foreign attacks, but to control domestic problems. The masses in the rural environments have been causing unrest for years because they are not been given the opportunities of those in the middle class/elite cities. Some believe that an economy growth rate below 7.5%, wow the U.S. would like that, would cause great unemployment -- they having been growing at 9%+. Now, wouldn't that cause a few problems there and in the rest of the world that depends on cheap products from China!
• Keep an eye on China's inflation rate! It isn't low now, yet their undervalue yuan and reasonable interest rates they may be sending out a very distorted picture. A jump in their inflation will catapult America's inflation.
• Let me reiterate the demographics issues with both China and Japan: They are both becoming an aging society. The U.S.is too, but much less than these two. Aging societies SAVE and SPEND LESS. Harry Dent has written several books in the past decade predicting the U.S. economy problems coming next year and 2011 because the peak of the boomers will retire. His last book, which I didn't find too enlightening in respect to his previous books, foresees a Depression in the future. If America could be hurt as Mr. Dent suggests by it's aging population, how will the world be affects by China and Japan? We are still some time off from the major impact of their aging, but be prepared.
• Another comment by Mr. Smick related to the poor estimation of requirements done by the Chinese. Hence, the over stockpiling of commodities. Consider the dumping of excess on the market too.
• Lastly, understand the "power-brokers" that highly influence the global market: (1) investors of oil-producing nations, (2) Asian Central Banks and sovereign funds presently hoarding Euros and Gold in addition to Dollars, (3) hedge funds, and, even (4) private equity firms.
  

Mr. Smick's book is packed with details and explanations, but in a very readable way. This book should be on your reading list.

173. Step by Step, Inch by Inch

Remember the old Abbot and Costello routine: Step by step, inch by inch...Niagara Falls! Well, no need to go that far back to understand that great changes usually start step by step as did today when U.S. Rep. Parker Griffith, a U.S. House Democrat who opposes the health care overhaul announced that he is defecting to the GOP. According to this article he spoke to reporters and commented "I believe our nation is at a crossroads and I can no longer align myself with a party that continues to pursue legislation that is bad for our country, hurts our economy, and drives us further and further into debt. Griffith is also a radiation oncologist and slammed the health care overhaul saying, "I want to make it perfectly clear that this bill is bad for our doctors ... bad for our patients... bad for the young men and women who are considering going into the health care field." How many more BEFORE Niagara Falls in 2010 elections?

172. What an Uncle

I find it quite disturbing that people believe our government can manage all the changes they plan for our new health care system when the government can't even prepare and manage the most simplest change. Case in point today is the payment of expenses under the GI Bill. According to this article, the government's inability to promptly pay for college expenses is causing a bit of distress for those veterans who desperately need the payments to continue education, graduate, and avoid eviction from housing. How many morons does it take to get it right?

171. Climategate Hockey Stick Graph

The Climategate Hockey Stick Graph controversy unfortunately involves the Penn State meteorologist and head author of the graph.To catch up on the controversy, see this article. Penn State is doing an internal investigation re the emails made available, including Professor Mann's emails, to try to determine whether there was any known distortion of information to support a theory rather than to report the truth. I listened to a 5 minute journalist discussion re global climate change last night. One clueless fellow claimed the debate is really over and cited the increase in global temperatures; whereas, a more correct fellow corrected him and stated that since 1998 there has been a decrease in global temperatures. Whereas the polar icecaps did decrease for a while, they are now increasing. The debate will continue forever and fat cats like Gore will get rich for starting a scam based on shaky data and distorted graphs and, of course, his prize-winning documentary. He and Michael Moore should go have a feast out and accumulate some more blubber for the next ice age. America and the world really don't need anybody to push them to get off of OIL! Alternative fuels and nuclear have been on the table since the Carter presidency. Again, our politicians don't care about the future or they would have acted THEN! We could be like France on full power nuclear generated electricity and be living on domestic oil today. Instead, the bickering continues and all the time is wasted by Climategate when the market and capitalism is driving the changes anyway. We have one great leader don't we? We need a Reagan again -- someone who knows what "no mas" means!

170. Penn State Women's Volleyball #1

Did you see the fantastic Penn State Women's Volleyball Lions kick butt the last three matches of the national championship against Texas. After trailing in matches 0-2, the gals came on strong to win the last 3 matches to claim their third consecutive national championship and finish the year undefeated. They now hold the record for most consecutive match wins of 102 -- last lost match was in 2007. Way to go ladies. Read more here.

169. Common Sense

Common sense is the knack of seeing things as they are, and doing things as they ought to be done.

Author: Josh Billings

168. Need Facts? Don't Read U.S. Papers

Have you ever wondered what non-U.S. papers were writing about important events, Like the Copenhagen Climate Meetings? Read this article. As I alluded to in many previous notes, Pinocchio and friends just can't resist spin to make you believe they are in control, not only of America, but also now the world. Now we hear a different side of the story and President O's failure to accomplish anything, plus, tick off other nations. Where does it end? Whether you are a green person or not, I think you deserve the facts. My personal view is green is to pee on, but other than that to leave alone. The world has adapted for billions of years on its own.

167. This Little Piggy Went to the Market

This Little Piggy Went to the Market...exactly what I did the last several days and bought back covered options anticipating the year end rally. Now if the clowns in Congress can only sit quietly or go home and not disturb Wall Street. I'm still buying defensive investments, but dabbling in commodities too. Guess that's called diversification. I'll be getting much more defensive in January BEFORE the earnings barrage. January may still please, but I've got that wierd feeling in my gut -- usually I just find a corner and yak in it. But, this time my bones are at stake and I dug myself a huge hole to bury some rawhide ones that don't lose value. I need to prepare for the next financial storm.

166. Snow, Snow...Snow, Snow

The East was hit with a nice storm as described here. That brings back memories of the 42" snow fall when we lived in West Virginia on top of the mountain. We were stuck on top for 6 days before the bulldozer could get back to us to plow us out. But it was a pleasant adventure. Imagine snow so deep that the only way the deer could move around is to jump. Heck, even I couldn't go out to my business until an area was shoveled. Yet, the complete silence coupled with amplified sound when one was made converted our place into a dreamworld. The birds were overjoyed after we cleared a path on our deck to their feeder -- the chickadees, nuthatches and juncos entertained us all day long. What else was there do do other than sit in front of the fire in the stove and read a good book. It was times like this when time led to contemplation of matters and plans for the future. Don't you just hope Congress was shut down during this latest storm and the clowns removed their makeup, put down their horns, and revisited reality just for one or two days. Think it will help? Probably not. I'll have to go through my pictures while on the Preserve; I had a whole different collection of friends (box turtles, red efts, turkeys, deer, etc.) then, and, if you remember in a real early post, this is where I ran into the Left-Thing (the bear - Pelosi), not to mention the rattlesnakes and copperheads (the Republicans and Democrats)of the Preserve. What was really nice was that most of the time our lives returned to the simplistic times of decades ago; however, there were the weekends when sometimes we would encounter the Weanies (Weekend Entities) and Wieners (Weekend Environmentalists). This also was ok until about the third year when the not-officially-appointed imitation clowns started to impose their silliness and book-environmental changes unto the peaceful, full-time inhabitants and community. If there is one thing I learned in life its never think you can rest and live an undisturbed life; there is always somebody out there that won't let you. Take a time out to think, to remember, to dream -- reinforce your Common Sense.

165. Get Ready to Choke

Do you really think the Democrats give a crap about what the people think? Do you really think they care about our financial status and future? I shouldn't just pick on the Democrats, because if the Republicans were in majority the case would probably be the same. SSDD. That is Stephen King's acronym for Same Sh*t Different Day. This article clearly informs you HOW the Dems got the 60th vote for the Health Bill: BOUGHT IT. "Nelson, D-Neb., said Saturday he made his decision after winning fresh concessions to limit the availability of abortions in insurance sold in newly created exchanges, as well as tens of million in federal Medicaid funds for his home state. Meanwhile Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said "This bill is a legislative train wreck of historic proportions...it includes cuts to Medicare, home health care and hospices as well as "massive tax increases" at a time of double-digit unemployment." Amen. Just said a prayer to clear the House and Senate of ALL representatives and senators and start over. We the People need to demand term limits on these clowns -- how much of a circus you take? Smells pretty elphantly -- and I have the nose and common scents to analyze what is being dropped to the floor -- a LOT of expensive meals and wine to go along with their waste projects. Hmmm. Just how many clowns went to Copenhagen that we the taxpayers expensed. Is there a reason Pelosi went? How about Arnold? Gander at this for a list. Do I need this on my master's birthday? Happy Birthday master. Thanks for watching over me. Forget about the government imbeciles -- I love you. My Common Scents and your Common Sense will get us along just fine. We're always 6 steps and a tail wag ahead in the real world.