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1210. Presidential Debate - Trump and Harris Ridiculous

 So was there a winner of the Presidential debate or just another setup with ABC? I'll agree that Kamala was more composed and the strat...

Friday, October 9, 2009

75. $$$ Books

In post 67 I said I'd have to chew on a few $$ books to get a better grasp on the oil-to-dollar relationship. Here's what's in my dog house at the moment:

"The Money Men" by H.W. Brands, c2006 -- very easy ready beginning with Alexander Hamilton and the creation of the central bank system right up to WWI. How, why, political battles, consequences.

"The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It" by Turk and Rubino -- Why the continuous, unsupported printing of money and creation of debt ALWAYS leads to the collapse of the fiat currency. Starts with history beginning around WWI and continue with key statistics and useful info through its copyright in 2004. Very accurate title in 2009! Read about the gold standard and investing in gold and other hard assets today.

"Lords of Finance" by Liaquat Ahamed - Portraits of the key four men during the Depression years that influenced the economy and how.

Please be patient for highlights. I'm a slow eater and like a variety of snacks at a time.

74. Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys

Predictions please. I'm going with Steelers (vs. Lions) and Cowboys (vs. Chiefs). This weekend the Broncos (vs, Pats) lose their first game.

73. Go State -- High School Prom

Yes, the Nittany Lions are playing another lower division school -- Eastern Illinois. That should solidify their NCAA standing! I really can't understand why the Lions have these schools scheduled. It's certainly a lose-lose conclusion for them. Only Eastern Illinois can benefit from beating the Lions. Oh well, Go State . Don't forget to attend the high school prom afterwards.Noon EDT kickoff - I'm sure I'll be listening to radio for this big game.

72. Count the Illegals?

Why do the Democrats want to count the illegals in the census? Remember ACORN -- the corrupt organization who the U.S. Census just broke a relationship with? How about SEIU, a massive union also in bed with the government. Well, let's see who the U.S. Census will be working with now and why? Is everybody familiar with redistricting? You know, changing the boundaries of voting districts within a state to capture the most party loyalists for the next election. Well. redistricting depends on census statistics. If you count the illegals, even knowing that they individually have no vote in an election, districts can be created based on population size allowing more representatives to be added for the state and to represent the state in the House. Look at the states with the most illegals and you can see clearly that they are Democratic. Got the picture? Yes, counting the illegals skew the House Representatives more to the Democratic party. This is another element in TRANSFORMATION of America. Or is it better to say CORRUPTION? Wow -- Van Jones=Communist and now gone from government (we think) and now Mark Lloyd = Pro-Marxist Diversity Czar (see this and also this ) and his connection to Robert McChesney who together through the FCC are defining new guidelines that may affect your Freedom of Speech, at least from what you can listen to, i.e., which media.

Put the pieces together people. Use your Common Sense.

71. Unconstitutional to Deny Illegal Immigrants

Have you been following athe ssertions by constitutional lawyers and judges lately that illegal aliens cannot be denied Health Care? According to them, any social program offered to all "persons" in America must INCLUDE illegals. The word "persons" is construed as anybody within the borders of United States regardless of citizenship. Obama, being a constitutional lawyer and graduate of Harvard should have been clearly knowledgeable of this. Thus, when Representative Joe Wilson decried "liar" during Obama's congressional speech on Health Care re the legislation not being available to illegal immigrants, he was right for now a second reason. When will Obama's PinOchiO imitations cease! Now, I want to remind you that, regardless as to the very clear statement in the current bills in congress that illegal immigrants would not be available to them, it is unconstitutional to deny them. So, we are now looking at an additional 15 million people in the system. Also note that a Congressional Report came out stating the same thing AND the CBO already factored in one third of the illegal immigrants when coming up with a price tag -- so what will the other two thirds cost?.

So, you ask: suppose we are all blinded by the statements in the legislation and do not know the constitutional bit. What then? Well, if it passes, the Supreme Court would probably get called to review a case and decide formally that it was unconstitutional and therefore nullify the statements forcing us to add 15 million to the system.

This sounds more than a lie this time! This is just plain deceptive to We the People. Please read my next blog on the census too.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

70. $829B (to $4 Trillion) Health Care Reform!

I'm glad I buried my bones in the back yard. I can just afford to pay my monthly insurance premium now! Looks like I'll be digging up some bones to trade for worse Health Care benefits at a higher cost.

Today the CBO put a price tag of $829B to the Backus plan. Please note however, that they first admitted their original estimate was short by $29B. Also note that all 10-year major plans estimated by the CBO over the last several decades have been only a fraction of the actual costs (costs turn out to be 4 to 5 times more is what I just heard). Not unbelievable since we already heard proven stories where even a hammer cost thousands of dollars. But, don't take my word for it. Some important caveats to the CBO cost were released with their estimate and documented here. For example: "...the estimate does not include the costs of proposed payment increases for doctors serving Medicare patients, roughly $200 billion through 2019. Additionally, a so-called fail-safe mechanism to hold spending in line could result in cuts as large as 15 percent in federal subsidies designed to help the poor afford insurance, CBO said." Whoa. Don't get fixated on that $829 B figure! It has already shifted, by the CBO itself, upward.

And do you believe that the following statement from the article: (1) "Health care legislation drafted by a key Senate committee would expand coverage to 94 percent of all eligible Americans"? If we logically subtract the illegals and Medicaid people from "eligible" today, we are talking about 47 million (the number they gave us as having no private insurance plan) - 15 million illegals - 9 million Medicaid = 23 million eligible Americas. That is 23M/295M, where 295M = number of "legal" people in America, or 7.8% of "eligible" Americans are uninsured today. Guess that means 100%-7.8%=92.1% ARE INSURED. (all their figures). So, for somewhere between $1 Trillion and $4 Trillion we are going to drastically change our Health Care system to cover just 2.9% more. But wait, here is what they said later in the article: (2) "Under the proposal, the share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage would rise from about 83 percent currently to about 94 percent," Elmendorf said. Elderly Americans are eligible for coverage under the federal Medicare program." NOTE: the 94% stated in (1) is no longer a percentage of all Americans, but only legal nonelderly residents. Then note, the smoke and mirrors of going from 83% to 94% to make you think you are getting something significant. Well, the facts, based on the quotes from this article, produce a change from 92.1% to 94%! No thanks! Not buying your propaganda.

Also, don't forget that through magic they are going to finance this monstrosity using $400B+ from Medicare; fraud money that our government never attempted to recover and still refuse to initiate recovery until this bill is approved and they commit you and me despite we knowing that they are lucky to recover $4B! (But, of course they will lead you to believe that the fraud they saved from us would have been yet another $600 B had they not implemented something -- like an aide on a keyboard to lie to you).

I encourage you to review all the "medical" category blogs on this site to understand the big picture. Then use some Common Sense to analyze how your elected officials in Washington are planning to take even more dollars out of your pocket. The whole reform can be done in a tenth of the cost if they would just get out of politics mode and into We the People mode. What a disaster.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

69. Another Viet Nam?

This article is an update to the debate on sending 40,000 troops to Afghanistan. Master served during the Viet Nam war and reminds me how President Johnson decided to casually toss a few troops into the war again and again and at no time put the required number of troops there to finish the war. Also, with an unstable Afghanistan government, we are in the same predicament as we were in Iraq -- you have to militarily stabilize before you can comfortably train the foreign forces AND rebuild the government and land. I'm afraid to say, sending 10,000 troops at a time, every six months or so, will worsen the conditions. Not enough to turn it around. Too little to matter. This will increase the Taliban confidence and increase attacks. It means more US deaths for a longer period of time. I'm in disbelief that Obama cannot learn from history. However, I am not in disbelief that he is clueless in commanding a war. Let's hope his strategy is to put 40,000 troops over there to support existing troops and reduce the deaths. Then to send 10,000 at a time over to train. Followed by more to rebuild. If we estimate the number of troops over time instead of just this initial surge, we should be able to discern, like saving for college, investing today is the better payback over time. I would venture we'd get out years earlier if we invested now, than to make another Viet Nam out of this. Didn't he learn from the Soviet Union's effort in Afghanistan either? Don't wimp out now or all our Allies will leave you there alone too!

68. Let Me Run - Market Going Up

Take me off the leash and I'll run all day long. This market gives me the "free" feeling again. I suppose we bounced and can again run for awhile before we need to pull back at the instance of merely a whistle. I say run towards DJIA 11,000. Except for the 13-year bubbles between 1995 and end of 2008, the market showed a normal exponential growth. So, what's wrong with expecting a conservative retracing of that curve? We're on it now. Next resistance is 10,000 plus or minus 100. Beyond that depends on whether we solidly break through 10,000 towards the next stop of 11,000.

There have been rumors that Obama is feeling the pressure of supply-siders to cut taxes. Makes sense -- Common Scents. Reduced corporate taxes means more hiring. More hiring means less unemployed. More hiring means more spendable income to spend. More spending means growth to small businesses (retail and services), as well as large (suppliers of capital goods and services). More spending means economy growth. Better economy means more investors in small businesses, both existing and NEW (this is where rich put money -- this is why you don't want to increase taxes on the rich). More business growth = more jobs = more spending money = more profits = salary raises = more spending money. And so on. Only this time, please don't make the credit mistake again! People need to EARN the right to better financial health. Stop the give-aways. We don't need to topple the economy again with unrealistic loans -- we worked and rented for 5-6 years to get enough down payment for a house. So, what's wrong with the same paradigm today?

Oops! Off the subject. Back to the market. You're on your own whether you want to buy stocks now. You missed a good 3-4 days before the last 2 to get in. There is still something left in the rise, but, 10,000 will be the testing point. If it again is resistance, 9325-9425 could again be the support. Do pick solid performers though until Obama lowers taxes.

67. Oil-to Dollar? Oil-to Basket of Currencies?

Glenn Beck tried to make a possible switch of oil-pegged-to-the-dollar to oil-pegged-to-a-basket-of-currencies a negative thing for America. I’m no economist. But here is my thinking? Am I wrong?

Dollar-Oil Relationship (today) – Oil MUST be bought/sold in dollars

(Dollar-to-Oil Relationship) - If the dollar strengthens then more oil can be bought for a dollar; conversely, if the dollar weakens, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of oil.

However, a reverse relationship (Oil-to-Dollar Relationship) also exists. If oil stability (inventory) is disrupted (war, cartels, terrorists, supply itself), the price of oil goes up and drives the dollar down. If oil inventories look better, supply & demand drives the price of oil down; hence, to keep oil profits stable the dollar must raise.

Possible future – Oil tied to a basket of currencies other than the dollar.

If the dollar is removed from its direct connection to the commodity oil, how is the dollar affected then?

One could expect the same relationships as before, but now for the basket of currencies, when they become tied to oil, with some exceptions. Whereas the dollar’s strength/weakness can be affected by something other than oil, each currency in the basket can also. However, the basket, or diversification of currencies, will be designed to average out -- in other words, to remain stable and about the same. Thus, the Basket-to-Oil relationship should be more stable and keep oil prices more consistent. How about the reverse relationship, i.e., Oil-to-Basket? An unstable Oil inventory will now affect the Basket of currencies like it did the dollar. But, instead of impacting a single dollar currency, say 10%, each of the currencies in the basket will only be affected by 10%/number of currencies in basket. Very simplified example and not specifically accurate in that each is an equal share. But, it demonstrates the point that no single currency in the basket will be affected like a single dollar was and the economies dependent on those currencies won’t be affected as much.

OK. Assume the dollar is now outside the relationship. However, we will need to buy oil in one of the currencies in the basket. How does the dollar-to-euro look (or one of the other currencies)? Are we weaker or stronger than the Euro? If our dollar is no longer pegged to oil, that for years has been an unstable commodity that weakened our dollar, will our dollar become stronger? Good question? I personally believe our dollar will become more stable. Our stability should then become more accepted by world countries wanting to invest in America. Would that not boost our economy? So, I say go ahead and peg oil to a basket of currencies.

I suppose I need to check out a detailed economics book detailing the dollar to commodity relationships and the dollars importance in the world before drawing any final conclusions. What do you think about a new oil-to-basket of currencies scenario? Am I way off target? Just trying to use my Common Scents.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

66. Roar Lions Roar

Roar Lions Roar -- 35-10 victory over Illinois


Nothing better than watching Penn State in High Definition. This morning I installed my RCA Yagi antenna to pull off-air digital. Finally, I get the major local network channels plus about 5-6 more (all but 2 are Spanish, Si) channels. I was delighted to get 100% signal and crystal clear picture with it installed in my attic. This also allows me to record 3 stations at a time now.

Friday, October 2, 2009

65. Mr. President

Don't believe that winning is really everything. It's more important to stand for something. If you don't stand for something, what do you win?
Author: Lane Kirkland

64. Where R the Steelers?

My tail is between my legs in shame. Where are the Steelers? I don't know why I haven't converted to a Cowboy's fan yet. Why am I hung up on Ben and crew? They aren't like the old days with Franco Harris, Jack Ham, and Lydell Mitchell. But they do need an immaculate reception to turn them around. They face the Chargers on Sunday. Redemption!

If I am lucky, my outside antenna may make it to the local Walmart store on Saturday. Need it to get off-air HD for the local channels -- yes, even this town is too itty-bitty for DISH to push it's satellite high definition here.

Ok. I'll acknowledge the 3-0 Broncos. Don't need to remind me. Enjoy the NFL games. Raise one for me.

Winning isn't everything, but losing is nothing.
Author: Red Symons

63. Dangerous Foreign Policy

A positive move by Obama: This article reports a face-to-face discussion with General McChrystal. I have no problem with taking a week or two to collect the details and to derive alternatives and a strategy to handle the terrorists in the Mideast. Afghanistan is just one locale that rises to the top at the moment along with Pakistan. Yes, Afghanistan will require the same strategy as IRAQ, i.e., control it militarily while training the Afghans. Thus, 5-10 years of our assistance. Meanwhile, Pakistan anti-terrorist strikes need to be stepped up too. So, given my little knowledge of the details, I would lean toward more troops in Afghanistan in hot spots to reinforce our needy troops already there -- we owe it to our troops to add more protection and muscle. I would also beef up drone activity in Pakistan.

Well, that only leaves Iran and North Korea. What a plate of dirt to eat and digest. You should know where I stand on Iran by now: they continue to create excuses and activities in order allow them (and Russia and China) to continue nuclear weapon plans. I truly think Iran is just a cover for Russia and China in extending their nuclear range and weapons -- and yes, Venezuela could be in that pact too along with other Chavez backers. Hope I am wrong on this one. However, we will never know the classified facts. I never had to worry too much about them in the past. But, under this administration, my eyes and ears are wide open. How about yours?

62. The Clunker Economy

As expected, US auto sales in August went up because of the Cash for Clunkers program. And, as expected, the US auto sales were a disaster in September. So, what long term benefit did we taxpayers get for our money? Nothing. If it hadn't been for Ford which was NOT bailed out, it would have been a total nightmare. Government Motors came in with biggest drop in comparison to last year's sales. Might as well through money out of a helicopter over the ocean!

And don't you like how many jobs are being CREATED by the stimulus packages! "Jobs losses this month totaled 263,000, worse than even the most pessimistic economist projection" reported here

Also, as expected, the government tried to dress up the numbers by saying more jobs would have been lost. What's to make me believe this isn't yet another lie? We've been hearing this one all year.

But I am glad to hear we don't have to foot the Olympics in Chicago. Seems that the Olympic host cities have been LOSING money on the events. Besides, do I really want to see Obama's team get richer because of their conflict-of-interest in real estate in the Chicago area? I'm already appalled by the second 727 that made the trip to fight for Chicago 2016 -- more money thrown out over the ocean. YOUR money!

61. Bottom and Bounce?

Did we bottom at the DJIA low of 9324 today? Did we start the recovery bounce when we went to high of 9524 in late afternoon? I stand with my prediction that it will take a drop to 9325 before a real recovery to 10000+ happens. Monday and Tuesday will tell the tale. So, my advice is buy early Monday and don't wait for the absolute low -- with the unpredictability of the market, you might miss the advance entirely.

60. Medicare Advantage (s) Dream

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091002/ap_on_re_us/us_medicare_seniors explains some of the debate over how the new Health Care legislation might impact seniors. Let me net it out with accompanying opinions:
1. Those on Medicare Advantage, i.e., private plans subsidized by government to provide at a minimum the equivalent of Medicare, will lose subsidies. Those on Advantage usually get added benefits that I personally would love, such as, Health Care memberships, dental, hearing aids, etc. So, bottom line, if the subsidies cease, so will the benefits or the premiums will rise or both. NOT GOOD for my future plans.
2. The article suggests that the following are benefits (but they are NOT) of the "new" Medicare:
  • Free preventive services, e.g., 100% coverage of certain exams like mammograms and annual wellness exam. Today these will cost you 20% unless you have a Medigap policy which I sure will have. With a Medigap policy, it will cost me nothing. Thus, NOT A BENEFIT.
  • They want to delay scheduled decreases in doctor fees and provide them bonuses also. WHY are doctor fees even scheduled to decrease? I read about the bonuses elsewhere. Essentially, they will pay the doctor to use cheaper procedures than available. Thus, they might decide to look an a XRAY and venture a guess rather than ordering an MRI. NOT A BENEFIT.
  • They want to penalize hospitals when a patient is readmitted for same problem. Like they have a call in whether a patient gets readmitted. NOT A BENEFIT.
  • Better coordinate all the doctors on your case. I have not seen this as a problem at all and have managed the health of Medicate patients in the past.NOT A BENEFIT.
  • Fill the prescription drug gap by providing a 50% discounts within the gap. Go to Walmart and use generic drugs and AVOID the gap entirely! NOT A BENEFIT.
The Dems claim that the Advantage plan is costing the government 14% more per patient than under Medicare. I would venture to guess that they are using the billions of fraud dollars in their calculation. How about eliminating the fraud and reducing everybody's premiums?

What lame arguments this article has in convincing the seniors that the $500 billion the government wants to take out of Medicare will provide them with something better. DREAM ON!

Thursday, October 1, 2009

59. "Culture of Corruption" by Michelle Malkin

Dear Ms. Malkin,
I can't read any more! My blood pressure must be off the charts. I did get through the whole book, but had to just skim parts because the gory, but true, details (75 PAGES of footnotes) were more than I could handle. I get it! I did before. I REALLY get it now! Anybody with Common Sense would have gotten it BEFORE too. I believe I read somewhere in your book that it's my public service to get some of the starry-eyed Obama people who were dazzled by his rhetoric to read this. You forget that they were INDOCTRINATED, not educated by the political process. They are all mostly "Me Me" people who want to recreate history instead of learning from it. As with the economy, they are clueless to see the big picture and can only focus on an individual or topic at one time. America is in jeopardy; freedom is in jeopardy. I can only BEG they pick up your book and at least skim it to see the BIG PICTURE. Thank you for alerting us.

"It pains me to say this, but I may be getting too mature for details."
- Jerry Seinfeld in The Deal
Sincerely,
Sam, the Common Scents dog

58. Health Care Mess

My comments to: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091002/ap_on_go_co/us_health_care_overhaul

Please tell me how my Health Care insurance premiums will NOT increase if we continue pushing a plan with these in it:
1. No insurer can deny coverage.
2. No insurer can charge those with preexisting conditions a higher premium (means, all others will have to cover the added risk and expenses = higher premiums for everyone except for those with preexisting conditions)
3. Federal subsidies for those who cannot afford coverage (they are planning to fund the states with subsidies and let them negotiate plans for these people (fine, unless they end up in same administered plans as me which would mean I must pick up the difference from subsidized amount and premium we all pay). And how much will you STATE TAXES go up to cover the administration costs of this negotiation?
4. Costs would be borne by Health Care providers (who, of course will pass it along to us via higher premiums)
5. Costs also paid by billions of dollar cuts to Medicare and Medicaid (can you hear me without that hearing aid?)
6. Still being discussed is making it more difficult to itemize Health Care costs on taxes (what does this mean? Instead of paying taxes to support the new reformed plan we can deduct less? Sounds like a tax to me if this is the case. Of course, the Dems provided no details or answers to this question)

The statement by the Democrats that premiums will not increase MUST BE A LIE!

A good amendment from Cantwell is to implement a program like the state of Washington has where the state negotiates a plan (they have 4) for low income people with income above Medicaid requirements -- up to $44,100 for family of four. Sounds good, but I would ask if these plans are separate from plans most of us would get so our premiums wouldn't go up and the added State taxes to do this.

The MUST BUY or get PENALIZED section remains in the Finance Committee plan. Currently, if a plan exists that costs less than 10% of an individual's (family's) income, then they must buy insurance or pay a penalty up to $1900 per family. Schumer want to lower this to 8% and delay penalties until 2014 with a max of $950 per family. How they are ever going to determine this on an ongoing basis is beyond my beliefs. I suppose they will go to last year's tax form, if you even submitted one, to check. And what if you didn't? Or if you had an anomaly year where you took all your gains because the Bush tax cuts allowed you to not pay any tax on gains or dividends if you are in the15% tax bracket or below and their definition of income will include this -- wow, that would rape a few people.Sometimes I wish I could rattle their heads to see how empty they really are! But, there may be help. Also being considered are EXEMPTIONS to buying insurance that could apply to MILLIONS (let's see now -- current 47M uninsured people = illegals, those on Medicaid, and others. From the others category, we now subtract a millions more of "exemptions" leaving how many? We are going to spend $900 Billion over 10 year for how many new people and at what increased premium?

To end, let me reemphasize the one-liner in the article that states that this Finance Committee legislation needs to be merged with the one from HELP (Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. The latter HAS the PUBLIC OPTION in it (that has already been defeated in two votes!). Harry Reid is pushing this in the Senate, while Pelozi demands that it be in.

Then, finally, President Obama, needs to live up to his promise that he will not sign legislation that adds a dime to the deficit. I am sure the definition of deficit will change radically (as he has already changed America) to allow him to pass if without LYING AGAIN.

So, here's my forecast:
1. Expect higher premiums than you see today (explained above)
2. Expect longer waits for physician and hospital services (taxes on Health Care providers coupled with more insured people calling on them and fewer and fewer physicians going into or remaining in the system)
3. Hello Elderly -- there's no hope for you (losing services and increasing costs). btw: who do you think will be also shelling out more money to Medicare and Medicaid? Of course, this won't be called a rise in INCOME taxes!
4. The first 3 don't apply if they just stop the nonsense and use Common Sense and fix the current system as I explained in previous blogs.

57. The Lion Roars This Saturday

I'm already excited. Penn State vs. Illinois this Saturday at 3:30 EDT. I bet Joe Pa had the team working overtime this week after they gotten blown out last Saturday by Iowa. The offensive line has been particularly weak and it appeared it shook up Daryll Clark mentally in last game. He was just not himself -- lost his composure. The Iowa loss may be what the Lions needed to uncover their weaknesses. That's why I can't understand why they play "high school" teams the first three games -- what are you going to learn about yourself? Hopefully Sean Lee will back on the field too. The other linebackers did OK, but Sean is two for the price of one out there. So, Nittany Lion fans, get your blue and white out, check your grill, load the fridge, get the snacks ready and enjoy the game. GO STATE!

56. Ready to Bounce?

My beach ball has had a leak and is almost deflated completely. That means only one thing: tomorrow is the day Master refills it. Coincidentally, the stock market correlates pretty nicely with my ball. My guess is that Master will drag himself out of bed late tomorrow, do his 1.75 mile swim, eat lunch, then pump some life back into my ball. That means you market-oriented people should be waiting for the bounce off a DJIA 9300-9325 tomorrow morning. pack your shorts away, and get into some longs. I expect to see some light at the end of the tunnel by the close -- perfect for shopping. Good luck.