737. A Quick Market Update and More of the Future

How does down 5% from the highest to the lowest DJIA sound? Not quite 10% as posted in 233, so watch or for more. Sam feels the volatility and smells Santa making a presence and present of a rise to get you out there shopping. By all means shop IN CASH, not credit you won't be able to pay off. Last thing this country and world needs is more credit exposures. Remember, YOU aren't too big to fail! Only the big companies are, which is also bad for you since the government takes money out of your pocket to rescue them. 

Now, for the 10% drop. Sam is still quivering and will probably remain that way until the first 2016 earnings conclude. It's not just the earnings though which will be the consequences of other events. Sam repeats her disclaimer that she's only a "deceased" dog and can't be right all the time. Presented here are only individual feelings and opinions that should NOT be used without your own research and conclusions. But, she still feels like a 10% leash is on her and it must be shed before she can run free again and enjoy the smell around a few trees, posts, and other fixtures that collect the smells of fear in other dogs as well as a little excitement. Thus, let's get through this mess by end of January 2016 and move on.

For some reason Sam does not fear OPEC. Can it survive by shooting it's other foot too? Maybe the presidential chatter of a tougher foreign policy will matter enough to rattle OPEC, really Saudia Arabia, into being just satisfied to "control" the knobs instead of winning the Grand Prize of dictator of oil. Our foreign policy, from oil, to terrorists, to leadership from the front rather than none even from behind, to the strength of our dollar and improved exports despite its strength, to acceptable relationships with other foreign leaders where we at least LOOK POSITIVE AND IN CONTROL would be a blessing. We won't tell you how to vote, but do consider the total failure of foreign policy by the current executive controlling party. I wish I could, on the other hand, wave the flag for the other party, and can for a few candidates. However, Congress and it's comfortable buddy system and cronies has made this government pretty ineffectual. Wish I had an answer to correct Congress other than a near total purge and limits on membership, but what's to guarantee that the policies remain the same and just different players manipulate the actions? Will a few REAL leaders please stand up! 

I thought Representative Ryan would should some spunk and common sense and lead, but he has only managed to grow a beard to hide his face and shame. My suggestion to SETTLE a permanent BUDGET finally and quickly and then get moving on other issues uninterrupted by the budget and debt mess we are always in. Never in my consulting years have I seen a client (government) so clueless and corrupt.

Okay, flip the box over and hand out the soap as stocking stuffers; better than coal. Have a Merry Christmas or at least have a Happy Holiday season. I'd play the "Have a very Merry Merry Christmas" song by the dog choir, but haven't figured how to do that yet on this blog. Hang in there Seniors; we may not be getting a raise and have to suck up a Medicare increase, but we have out health. Right? Well, at least we were born tough and know we'll find a way to get by. If only the younger generation had this knowledge and willingness!

736. Bloomberg's Brent Crude Oil Charts a Must

I had the hardest time finding a chart showing how oil prices fluctuate over time. Finally found this Bloomsberg website page that does the trick, including valuable articles of current events. So, if you are a believer that energy rules the world's economy as suggested in the book I reviewed in Post #700, "The Colder War, How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America's Grasp" by Marin Katusa, you will want to rush right off to the website and explore.

Supplementing this site recommendation is a recent article of interest. You'll reinforce your knowledge of how oil affects producers and refiners and their impact on society. 

735. Volume Icon Disappeared from System Tray

        MSFT Update deleted Volume Icon from System Tray. Not only was the ICON removed and not present as a hidden Icon, when I went to Settings, System, Notifications & Actions, Choose Your Quick Actions to try to turn it on via “Turn system icons on or off” it was grayed out. When I went to “Select which icons appear on the Taskbar” the Volume “square” was there, but no ICON was in it, nor could it be selected because it too was grayed out. This was also true for two other icons I desired in the System tray, Windows Defender and Everything. So, I edited the Registry as per http://www.technipages.com/windows-system-icons-missing-from-notification-area and restarted. Specifically, edit HKEY_Current_User/Software/Classes/Local/Settings/Software/Microsoft/Windows/Current Version/Tray Notify, export to save that key and values for backup if needed,  and then delete Iconstreams and PastIconStream values. After a restart, Volume came back. After starting Everything application, it too now displayed an Icon both in System Tray and within a settings square. I haven’t tried to get Windows Defender’s square reset to an ICON, but I could turn it on in Settings.

734. VISA requirements while in turmoil

I applaud the House for the bill banning waivers of visas from the 38 free-movement countries if the individuals traveled to Iraq and Syria in the last 5 years (see this article). This is the first step to improving homeland security. However, I'd take it a step beyond this in the wake of the last two terror attacks in Paris and America. I'd like to see more strict VISA checks for those requesting VISAs for marriage and finances. Then we still have the illegal people already here with expired visas or no visas. How about them? Immigration changes and cleanup needs to begin NOW. I feel the Federal government did an injustice by not performing any checks for a decade, not enforcing the laws, and continuing to avoid stopping the continuance of border jumpers. Let's get serious!

733. Market still trying to break 18,000 block

We are getting close to the end of 2015 and haven't quite pushed the 18,000 resistance level as stated in post #724 in October. We have had some good dips to sell while up and buy when down, but we haven't hit the big drop that I fear. I have already finished my portfolio balancing for this year and ready to take whatever we get in my non-retirement account. However, I might play the expected drop in my retirement accounts.

Now is a good time to get those losses sold and reduce your tax burden. You can always buy back in, but watch out for the Wash Sales (buying the same stock within 30 days, either before or after, selling it for loss unless all shares are sold). [Note, search for more complete description if this interests you]

Sam's ready to clean her crystal ball for a 2016 forecast. Things to consider include, but not limited to: (1) drag of Emerging Markets, particularly Russia, China, Brazil. India may be a boost if it rains there (seems Gold sales are down by the farmers who buy 60% of it due to lack of rain...can you believe it?). (2) Recovery of EU and Japan. (3) Bloody O'Blunder's games. We expect Fed rates to hike gradually, so I don't think that will have any major impact through the year. 

A positive person would bet on recoveries through the world and rise in commodity prices and Industrial stocks. He might also bet on some key advances in Biotechnology Industry. But O'Blunder health insurance stocks we'll go negative because health costs will continue to rise driving them to lose more O'Blunder accounts (already seeing the losses through 2015) and causing havoc again in the Health Industry. Will Financials ever recover? Sure, but not in leaps or bounds. O&G? Gotta come back...OPEC failed to wipe out anything other than their wealth and a manageable delay by America's companies (the weak have been and being sucked up by the strong). Politics? Pray we don't continue on the poor O'Blunder programs. My biggest fear for 2016 is that We the People AGAIN go to the Presidential polls uneducated and vote for looks or someone with fluent speech or youth. Unfortunately, we live in a society that these types of people are in majority and WILL influence and destroy America. 

And the worse thing: The MEDIA will continue to focus on the negatives AND their bias rather than on just reporting the facts and moving on to another story. I made it policy in this house to limit what they think is news to less than 10 minutes a day and increase common sense analysis by 100x! 

Sam say "Don't lose you common scents."