700. "The Colder War, How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America's Grasp" by Marin Katusa.

I briefly highlighted this book in entry #696 to rebuke  Green-Only activists in Colorado. The book is an excellent read detailing the history of fossil fuels and the politics and plans of different countries. Although Mr. Katusa stresses Putin's orchestration of the world's energy resources, I do believe the world countries have been finding their own way more than being led by Putin. Yes, Putin seems to be taking advantage everywhere he can to better his hand. Yet, his reach is still short of America's when you consider geographic, populated area managed now. I look at Putin's moves more of like the Europeans move to create the EU and a single currency. However, unlike the EU, he has the backing of natural resources, both located in Russia and agreements with many other countries. Will this management guarantee him success via his CES  (essentially a group of countries working together economically that he formed) is questionable. Weaker countries, as in the EU, would like to think the stronger countries will bend over backwards for them, like Greece. But, how long will that last? Taking on the task of a single currency, the Euro, has been found to be a very stressful and straining challenge. Unlike America with its States already manageable and the current global strength of the Dollar and Petrodollar (de facto trade of raw resources in Dollars), Russia still has a long hill to climb, If she were the only country climbing it, she would continue to make great progress, as noted in the book. However, other countries, specifically China, are also reaching out with the Yuan wherever possible -- the same tactics as Putin.

The scary theme of the book where America's Petrodollar and strong Dollar are threatened, or as Mr. Kitusa implies, on the brink of collapse is supported by scores of history and facts. I can't say he is totally correct and that he completely convinced me, but he does ring a compelling warning alarm to our Government who to-date have still not shared a comprehensive long-term Energy plan that this book explains.

It is definitely a SCARY book! His final conclusion is really what America can do to avoid the crisis he builds. I won't reveal those here, but must say they do agree with I had previously thought necessary. It is definitely time for our government to WAKE UP!

Read this to learn all about Energy history, development, use, and political power.

699. Oh What a Relief it is

Finally America is having its ring removed from its nose? After Iran pulled three of our "wisdom" teeth, we're going to finally pull out of the senseless Iran nuclear negotiations? That will be the day! Is the Media throwing crap at the walls to see what sticks? Personally, I never believed any compromise could be reached and that Iran is just leading us along to get more time. How many months, or years, has it been now that we've been kissing butt? But then, with Clinton and now Kerry leading, what could be expected? And people are going to actually vote for Hillary for 2016? What has either of them accomplished? Both are really clueless. Hey Hillary, read the book (see #696) and learn what you never did! Must I create a "HillaryStinks" category now?

698. Would you work harder for $.15/hr more?

I don't understand the hoopla about Walmart raising the minimum wages. Correct me if I am wrong, but full time minimum wage is 15 CENTS per hours more. WOW. what I could do with another $1.50 per day or $7.50/week, less taxes and SS and Medicare! Guess it would be enough for Christmas presents if I saved all of it. Heck, I might even earn about $1.75 interest for the year if I stick it one of O'Blunder's MyRA Savings plans (sorry, I missed writing about them) -- oops, inflation ate my $1.75 and I really lost $1.75 instead!

I believe the part-timers may get up to $0.45 more per hour. But then, you are talking maybe 20 hours per week and NO health plan. Can I get healthcare for $40/month?

So, why all the hoopla? Life at Walmart just continues on as usual.

697. Get Your 6-packs on the table

I like the new 2015 MLB rules to speed up baseball. I CANNOT watch an entire game! I'm bored after 1 hours and that's only 3 innings! It should be interesting to see the game return to hustle. I'm almost in favor of issuing a softball tournament rule I played in: batter steps in with 3 balls and 2 strikes on him. Well, maybe not for baseball. Heck, a player with a $10M/year salary to play 9 innings, each with about 6 pitches per batter, would get paid $10M for 1/6 of a batting effort, plus the time saved in the field. Heck, the MLB could triple the number of games and his salary will still be over $30M for the year.

Anyway, the games must be sped up. The new rules restricting the time a batter can be out of the box or the time the pitcher has before throwing the ball are steps in the right direction. Now, how about just shooting goals in hockey instead of playing the game? Or having only 5 rounds in a boxing match instead of having to watch the guys/gals dance around for 60% of the rounds? I love playing the games, but hate watching because of the length of them.

696. The "New Tree Hugger" Greenies need to think a little

I have nothing against pursuit of Green Energy technologies, but when a small group of activists who can't see further than the end of their nose stir up and waste the time of universities and trusts they have stepped over the line of reasoning -- see this article.. There is a great book for these people to read: "The Colder War, How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America's Grasp" by Marin Katusa. I'm about 75% finished with it. It focuses on how Fossil Fuels are the backbone to the Global Economy and Countries and a blind eye (what these snooty activists possess) to continued fossil energy is much more than green house gases. Oil today is like Gold in the past: the driver of the selected trade currency, which today is the U.S. Dollar! It focuses on Putin's plan to dominate control of all the natural resources -- oil, gas, uranium, etc. while our government continues to cater to the distracting skirmishes from activists like the ones in this article. The book is darn right SCARY! Putin has been driving his plan for decade. You'll read all about energy history, who controls it, and who has been accumulating controls. Let me touch on a Green Technology, Nuclear Energy. We have about 121 reactors in the U.S., more than any other country. We mine fuel for only HALF of the reactors. Thus, we have to import (from Russia primarily) rods to burn to produce nuclear energy. Putin has been catering to uranium-producing countries with offers and contracts and is now expected to have Russia the leading country in uranium production, about 49%, in the very near future. Add that to his already super-abundance of oil and gas, where is customers are mostly European countries supplied by pipe lines having his signature, and his immediate plans to access China (already has oil contract for 20 years) with new pipelines, he will dominate the eastern hemisphere and world.

The issue isn't just the fuels. The other real issue is the currency used for fuel and mineral trading, now is the Dollar. Clinton did a stupid thing on his watch: Gas for Food. Whereas we had a global agreement that the Dollar would be the ONLY trade currency, he provided an exception where Europe could trade food for fuel with Russia without trading and the Dollar. Since then, other countries followed suit. Venezuela jumped aboard with their oil and with agreements with China. the Dollar is getting bypassed and trading is being done without teh dollar and in the local country currencies. The question becomes: WHEN will the Dollar cease being the sole trading currency? Now this would be major damage!

So, here America sits on its hands with NO global energy plan other than throwing resources to insurgents across at least a half-dozen countries, while Putin waits until one of the countries fails or the skirmishes cease to go in and offer his hand to get them back up and running. He is a clever dude. As I said, the book is very, very good, covering history and energy issues in detail, and is very scary for an American to read.

Meanwhile, activists, take you felled tree to the local university and cry over it while ALL our lives are being shattered by a great chess player. Fossil fuel, as you will read in the book, MUST stay for decades to come. The WHOLE world depends on fossil fuels for manufacturing -- how do you get your windmill blades without fossil fuel, huh? The answer is ALL fuels must be supported, with fossil fuels first. They are the life blood of the world today and many, many years to come. They are America's life blood. You can't WISH them away when NO green alternative is available to EVER supply the world's, or even America's, energy appetite. You activists are essentially saying get out the outdoor grills and candles so you can experiment. I for one like my electricity and heat. Stay off my doorstep.

695. Greece and Markets 4 month countdown

Looks like the Greece crisis will definitely ensure a market dip this summer. It was given a 4-month extension to get its act together. So, we'll see the negotiations begin in mid-late May to come up with another plan or bailout. Just when the market will be over-tired already. So, if you want to play the short-term market, get out your moves. Or, suck up the drop if you are comfortable long-term.

694. O'blundercare needing Bandages

Help. My pipes are leaking. Send out a Dem to patch them. Instead of really fixing the leak, the Dems continue to think temporary patches will do the job -- see this article. How many instances now has the Signup process failed? Not meaning just the website, but even more importantly getting the individuals expected to sign up. Do you just think the people know more than the Dems are giving them credit for? That is, the penalty is less than the premiums -- as long as hospitals continue to take them via the ERs WITHOUT health insurance, why should they pay premiums when their problems are small and add up less than the premiums? Duh!

Guess the anointed one is sitting on several bills passed along to him already before he vetoes them or just let's them reach end of the line and they veto themselves. Quack, quack.

693. Japan still banking on favorable Karma

James Clavell emphasized that the Japanese believed almost entirely in Karma in his book Shogun. During that period little was expected and the outcome or mishaps were just Karma, i.e., fate. Little did they believe could be controlled and everything bad could not be prevented -- just Karma. Well, this article seems to enlighten that belief again. Abe is having a hard time getting them out of recession. Although the article is headed "Japan emerges from recession but growth subdued", I wonder how they can say that other than a few quarters had positive growth. When Abe imposed a surtax on goods, he also discouraged the citizens from spending. He now has a tough road to get the troops to start spending more -- hard because the Japanese are primarily savers, particularly during the last decade of economy woes.

What doe this mean to you? I would say don't expect one of the largest economies to turn the world economy around! Ain't gonna happen. We must hope they at least keep their own and grow slowly as the article and Abe HOPES -- ah, the Karma-word. I'll even take stagnancy at this point rather than another recession.

Let's see: Russia won't help the economy, nor most other Emergency countries that are exporters of oil. Saudi Arabia isn't helping matters playing its oil game with the world, Europe wrestles with several countries to keep the Euro in tack. Once again, America shines -- this is where you need to invest. A lot of turmoil to wade through. I expect the muck to get deeper before it dries up. Short turn, until summer, we can hope, believe in positive Karma happenings, until reality reigns down on us like a hot August sun.

692. Tomorrow's Market could Slide on Greece

If you have read about the negotiations over Greek debt program and Greece's rejection to continue the austerity program established and agreed upon with the EU in the not too far past, this article will bring you up to date on the fate of the continuance of EU support. I find it interesting that a poll showed 81% in favor of staying with the Euro, yet over 50% voted the leftest, who up front said he'd can the austerity program, into office. Greece does seem to be in a lose-lose position. In my opinion, they will fail regardless of whether the EU pumps in more money (loans) or not. Austerity programs seem a must. If they are just looking for a slightly less severe program, and thus recovery over a longer time, what would be the harm. Their unemployment is out of sight already. They need something to create jobs!

In the mean time investors, close your eyes tomorrow and suck it up. Just another bump in the road.

691. Now it time to pick on the Republicans

I was hoping -- yeah, like I really believed it would happen (NOT) -- that the Republicans would show some intelligence in breaking the log jams of government. But they continue where the Dems left off. For example, read about the Homeland Security bill (here). I would love to see a bill that allows only ONE thing to be voted on at a time! There was no need to stick anything about repealing Executive orders re immigration into the Homeland Security Bill! This is just POLITICS, which I hate. We the people want a strong Homeland Security -- vote for it! Do not slip other crap in the same bill. WHEN are We the People going to realize the nonsensical games played in Congress affect us negatively? Or should I ask, when are the representatives in Congress going to stop playing games with our lives. I really believe that important things, like Homeland Security needed to be voted on straight up without other annoying additions. Instead of wasting time and money nagging about O'Blunder's Executive orders via additions to bills, IMPEACH HIM! Why pussy-foot around the issues AND SOLUTION! Senators neee=d to be held to maximum terms, fresh blood needs to flow constantly into Congress before all representatives are poisoned with the greed and bitterness. I really hate the two party system also if I didn't ever say that. I say throw all political funding into one pot and distribute evenly to all campaigns -- everyone becomes an Independent! Abolish the TWO aisles/sides in Congress!  There's my rant for the day.

690. Market has More Fuel to Burn

GO-GO-GO. Can't say the markets won't go down, but have confidence they will exceed today's level before Summer fries us. A lot of shakiness is present with Greece and Ukraine cease fire (or not!). Maybe when the EU bond buying kicks in things will turn EU around. Meanwhile, The U.S. Markets will continue to edge upwards despite the strong dollar and low oil prices. Pick your favorite sectors now and for the future, e.g., oil WILL return on an upward slope. The world DEPENDS on energy, in this case, fossil fuels that run the world. Health is always a good bet, not just because O'Blunder help the Health Industry greatly advance (no, not consumer costs, but company revenues), but long-term all bets are on Bio Techs. China continues to drag, and India advancing to outgun China. Oil exporters (Countries and companies) will drag, so I will avoid Emerging Markets until China shows signs of recovery (years), India really accelerates, and oil turns around. Meanwhile, With commodities down and strong dollar, the Industrial sector is ready to boom with the first signs of movement upward on commodities and decline of the dollar. Neither are ready in my opinion, but buying levels are right in the Industrial sector. How about Banks and other Financial Institutions. They will again lead shortly when interest rates do go up (probably end of year), thus, need to be considered, very selectively, for future long-term exposure. So says Sam's crysttal ball -- she's always looking out for us.

689. Market Update

We've managed to go up very nicely since my last call and can look forward to more rewarding sessions midst volatility. The Willams %R indicates strong buying mode, but must be followed closely now for a signal of overbought. The simple moving averages look slightly positive, meaning the longer SMA is above the shorter SMA. Again, watch for more divergence or the shorter SMA moving upward and hopefully crossing the longer SMA (very positive move). We've jumped a bunch in 4-5 days -- probably just the positive volatility bump. I'm still looking at a good 1Q.

688. Two powers Not Saying What They Really Agree On

Reuters actually said what the U,S. and the so-named European contingents agreed upon, but did not clearly indicate so in their article here. The U.S favors sending arms to Ukraine, while Europe is still behind continued peace talks. It appears Europe still has its steps (PEACE TALKS) and the U.S. has it's (ARM), but the destination is probably the same (WAR). Could be that they are scripted to the paths they are taking. I would agree that sending arms alone would not gain anything since the Ukraine military even with arms are no match for the Russians. It's almost like giving them false hopes. However, it may speed up the inevitable, WAR. Difficult dilemma.

687. Patriots by 7

Why am I sitting here today when I could be watching all the Super Bowl hype and advertisements? We need events like this to get people excited about spending money! I don't need further enticement though. All the hype is noise to me. I may turn in to the game in the fourth quarter, and unlike the last Patriot rout, I see a close game in the first half with the patriot strength capitalizing in the second half. I'll predict the Patriots by 7.

686. Are you enjoying Obamacare (ACA)?

Fortunately, so far, other than annoyances re new programs (not costs) I haven't seen a personal difference. As a matter of fact, Medicare and my supplemental plan have been a blessing lately. What surprised me was how much lower medical procedures are reimbursed (no effect to you) compared to medical procedure fees. Oh, I feel for the people who have to pay full fees -- those who choose NOT to pay for health insurance or buy insurance that's inadequate for them personally. I have a friend on Medicare who without a doubt would be sucking up much Medicare and insurance bucks per year. But, instead of opting for a supplemental plan that costs more and pays all differences in what Medicare doesn't pay, a plan that is almost free was chosen. Free did I say? Yes they exist as far as monthly premiums. It's the co-pays that add up. In my friend's case, the costs already this year (here were just finished January) have already exceeded annual premium payment for the policy I recommended! Doesn't take many hospital days and specialist to realize that the almost free plan has wiped you out in January!

Here's one for you: I received a letter from an ACO (look it up yourself), a new Obamacare (ACA) money-spending entity that was designed and implemented to defend against the inefficiencies in the use and payment systems throughout the health industry. The hospitals, doctors, and healthcare organization who have signed up with an ACO share the efficiency gained by their work. If they share it (bonuses), who saves? Anyway, they send out this very general, high-level letter allowing you to opt-out of allowing Medicare to send them "personalized" information about you. My spouse and I discussed this. The ACO is NOT there to benefit you, such as making available information such as treatment dates, times, your drugs, etc. Hence, if you land up in a hospital and cannot communicate, they will NOT be able to look up you prior treatments, allergies, etc. This is NOT the function of the ACO. Would have been nice if data could be shared immediately when necessary and when the patient cannot respond himself. The ACO is merely playing monitor, like a resource monitor on you computer, looking at everybody'e costs and regarding those who do the best -- oops, let me paraphrase in what I believe: FOLLOW THE PROGRAM. I can see large abuse of the program to get a bonus -- false info, delays, etc. So, we just added another program that is going to MEASURE something, but does not have pure factual and unabused data. Sound like out other government programs?

In short, the ACO will get Medicare data regardless of whether you opt out or not. All the data they get otherwise is sufficient for their "inaccurate" analysis and subsequent CONTROL. I do NOT see that identifying my data personally is required. Thus, I immediately sent back my Opt-Out.

685. O'Blunder is playing Jack Jump Over the Candlestick

I didn't have to scroll down much to find this article that clearly depicts a President who has nothing to do or offer, Does he even think about the crap his administration tells him to mouth to the public? Is he that clueless to not even use common sense (even Sam can scent out the crap).

So, what's the issue this time? How about a 19% immediate tax and then follow-on tax for multi-national companies! Here we have grown out of the just-America world and for a decade or more (longer than O'Blunder has been in office -- still can't comprehend it) our businesses have been competing in a world-wide economy. Yes, they MUST compete worldwide which means they MUST organize to best serve their investors. What does "O'B;under have against INVESTORS anyway? Most likely he never played in the world investment game and has been handed everything on a silver tray. Now he is merely a talking-head for liberal thinking.

Our American Businesses, who, by the way, drive OUR economy through research, innovation,and spending. Anybody, including businesses, will spend more when they save more! Take away the revenue with taxes and their spending and investment will DECREASE and out economy will decrease! I' am a firm believer that the 35% corporate tax on business needs to DECREASE! We don't need the 35% + 19% on foreign-held revenue. The problem is NOT that they are making money abroad, but that our government encourages them to create foreign BASES due to the exxceedingly high 35% corporate tax rate. Cut it and they would be little motive to move things overseas other than local efficiency. The Republicans say "WAIT", we the Congress are working on an all-encompassing plan. Why must we Jump over the Candlestick! Let's investigate the issues logically and rationally. Well, I agree -- but someone needs to move the candle behind their butts too.

We should be thankful we don't have a REAL dictator (only a pretend one)!

684. O'Blunder Attacks the Middle Class Again!

O'Blunder (oh how I wanted to return to the anointed one's mistakes) spewed tons of malarkey at the State of the Union (No, I like most of you didn't waste time watching it). According to this article we, the Middle Class (however it is defined today -- varies depending on who uses it) -- need to be aware of a few things that Congress will again have to kill. For example, the elderly "would require estates to pay capital gains on appreciated assets. Hello, do you realize what this means?

Let me be brief. Today I buy a stock for $50 and when I die my estate realizes it $200. No problem for my beneficiary since the cost basis will be the step-up basis of $200. It he sells at $210, his gain is $10. 

Now O'Blunder's screwup: Again I buy at $50, die when it is $200, and beneficiary sells at $210. GOTCHA! The STEP-UP cost basis is being removed! It remains at $50 and the gain the beneficiary sees is $160! So, an additional $150 of capital gains tax is realized (1400% increase over today in this case). WAKE UP CALL people. Something doesn't smell right!

Oh, I am so glad I am old and will see $61+ increase to my taxes on O'Blunder's plans too! Bad enough the government cons you in believing your getting Social Security benefit for free when you give them a percentage of your dollars. Well, you aren't. Everything they pay in will mostly be taxed when you start collecting it! Didn't know that? Well, up to like 75% of your SS benefit receipts will be taxed WHEN YOU REALLY NEED IT! My advice, plan on that now and start saving elsewhere (Roth accounts preferably, or 401Ks that can be converted to IRA and Roth later).

I do like that Mr. Egan alludes to " the center added an average $19 tax bill to everyone in that bracket to account for a tax on banks, which ultimately is borne by all Americans." This should make you aware that ALL TAXES are NOT directly imposed on you and are HIDDEN! You get nothing for nothing folks. 

683. Economy Indicator Guesses

Matt Egan guesses at the driving indicators for 2015's economy in this article. However, I question whether he is indicating symptoms or causes or industries. My take is that the economy is looking for the next big discovery/invention and I mean big as in founding of Internet, Implementation of Electricity, first auto. So I can't disagree with Biotech driving the next BUST. With genetic research, immunotherapy drugs research/development, stem cell research, etc., a new BUST is in the making (sometime, maybe not 2015). I do like GILD and BIIB a lot as leaders. Will they drive the economy in 2015? Don't think so, but they will drive the portfolio. What drives an economy significantly is some new innovation. What will it be?

Thus, we are stuck in 2015 with the everyday economy indicators. We could focus on the Overall Economy (worldwide) and simply look at copper prices which have been declining since 2012 (if my memory is correct). The copper price is used because the copper supply is pretty stable; thus just demand affects it. Notice China and other Emerging Market countries hanging their heads for quite a while; thus, lower demand for copper (pipes, electrical things, manufacturing, etc.). Coupled with the Euro mess (Greece, Spain, Italy, etc.) re austerity programs and new liberal leaders gathering strength to stop austerity programs, little from Asia and Europe promises to turn that part of the economy around. Add Brazil, Venezuela, and other Latin countries having fiscal problems, plus those oil exporting countries trying to stay afloat with the low oil prices and you can only hope you can identify the 1-2 drivers that will turn everything around. QE? Not much left in the easement basket? I don;t have a clue what could turn Asia and Europe around other than an innovation that is massive.

China continues to work on energy projects, such as wind, solar, nuclear, and clean-burning coal. This will aid them and some specific industries and companies, but I don't see how it will affect the area's economy.

SPENDING. Now there's a promise. But how do you get people to spend when they are getting their lunches eaten by their own weaker currencies? If you examine the GDP formula, GDP= G + I +C + NX (Goverment spending, Business Investment Spending, Consumer Spending, Net Exports), you wonder what can start the move upward.  How do you export (NX) when your currency is low? How do you get your consumers to spend (C) when the sentiment is so low and they are stuffing emergency funds under the mattress? And, without the consumer demand, how can Businesses invest (I) in future growth? This is when Governments (G) choose to pick up spending to stimulate growth (the only element in the equation that seems to matter when desperate), China has been at this for years without progress -- for years they have been buying raw materials as they plummet and stockpiling in hopes the economy turns around and they can then benefit big-time. They also started building like crazy -- unfortunately, large areas, even cities have tons of new buildings and construction, but NO PEOPLE in them!

Let me get away from the dreary other side of the world. If you are following closely the last 3-5 years you would have noticed Europe and Asia following the same miseries as we faced, but lagging by 2-3 years. Why are out markets growing? And will their's pick up for same reasons as ours did? Was it the bail-outs and QEs? Or was it that American companies attack a problem with hard measures? Resiliency could be the difference. Our companies do NOT have to be told that they must suck it up and find a way to turn around! They just do it! Unlike Europe where the Euro encompasses many diverse countries, we are one country. Big difference in managing our currency. Thus, the dollar became strong, our consumers benefit from cheaper imported products and the sentiment increases, which drives demand, which helps the manufacturing industry, etc. So, SPENDING is a driver! No, DIS and CMG (Chapotle) won't drive the market as Matt indicates -- it's spending that drives them. So, KEEP SPENDING. But, please watch that credit card tab! We don't need to return to a credit crisis.

In summary, since I am a long-investor, I will continue to play the Tech and BioTech industries. Financials will (not to disagree with Matt) lead when the interest rates rise (think Fed and when they will move -- not until wages pick up and world economy at least stabilizes). They are NOT leading now, but could be long-term reasonable investment (think dividends this year). HealthCare? With all the old folks, and growth accelerating, you must think long-term all will benefit.

I'll return with more insights (Sam's crystal ball and senses have a lot these days), but lunch is on the table!